Hybrid threats emerge from a mix of tactics used by states, private entities, and criminal networks to destabilize a country. They combine disinformation, instrumentalized migrations, and attacks on critical infrastructure to erode public confidence, governance, and resilience. This broad toolkit aims to blur the line between war and peace, making it harder for societies to respond quickly and coherently.
Experts from the Barcelona Center for International Affairs describe these tactics as increasingly potent because any situation can be repurposed as a tool of pressure. During the release of CIDOB’s latest report, Hybrid threats, vulnerable order, the researchers highlighted how modern conflict is less about a single battlefield and more about a web of interlinked pressures that destabilize institutions and communities.
The authors note that while some elements are not new, the Internet functions as a critical front for destabilization. It magnifies existing tensions, spreads divisive narratives, and enables rapid coordination among various actors. In this environment, sociocultural fractures and security gaps become fertile ground for manipulation, often amplified by targeted messaging and automated content campaigns that reach millions in moments.
The conflict in Ukraine serves as a rich case study for these attacks, where the uncertainty surrounding objectives complicates attribution. The work emphasizes that hybrid threats tend to pursue victory by whatever means necessary, mirroring traditional war aims but leveraging digital and informational tools to achieve them. The report situates Ukraine within a convergence of classic warfare dynamics and contemporary digital trends, including technoauthoritarian practices in larger powers that shape information environments and policy responses.
Russia’s failure on immigration as a weapon
An illustrative hybrid tactic is coercive immigration pressure. Moscow has used energy leverage and political threats to influence countries that support Ukraine or condemn the invasion. Yet in practice, migration has not produced the expected crisis within the European Union. Analysts point to coordinated, measured responses by EU members and a reluctance to overreact as essential to maintaining stability. The key lesson is to address root causes rather than overturn foundational policies, ensuring humanitarian needs are met while preserving social cohesion.
Researchers emphasize that prudent management of migration flows, along with sustained support for affected communities, can prevent immigration from becoming a trigger for broader crises. This approach requires clear messaging, predictable policy pathways, and robust social safety nets that support newcomers and longstanding residents alike, reducing vulnerabilities that could be exploited by those aiming to destabilize the region.
According to CIDOB’s leadership, the aim of the report is to illuminate how hybrid threats impact the international order and security dynamics. It also offers pathways for resilience, including enhanced regulatory oversight of large technology platforms and strategic autonomy that can help limit the reach of these attacks. Yet experts warn that solutions often lag behind the rapid pace of threat development, underscoring the need for ongoing vigilance, investment in cyber and digital defenses, and international cooperation across borders and sectors. [Citation: CIDOB study on hybrid threats and security, 2024]”