A prominent geophysicist explains that a sharp drop in humidity in Turkey and a visible glow before an earthquake cannot be relied upon as consistent indicators of seismic events.
In prior discussions, a researcher from a space research institute noted that radiation can excite atmospheric gases. He mentioned that such a glow and a sudden humidity decline have, on occasion, appeared before earthquakes, but stressed that these signals occur only sometimes and do not guarantee a forecast.
Earthquake prediction remains a highly complex geophysical challenge pursued by researchers around the world. Beyond monitoring active fault lines, continuous observation of atmospheric conditions, radon levels, electric field changes, and subsurface currents offers a broader data set that may help scientists compare patterns and improve forecasts over time.
The observed glow in Turkey has been linked to energy release processes, though it is not straightforward to pinpoint the precise geophysical source involved.
One proposed mechanism involves energetic particles moving through near-space and interacting with atmospheric constituents along geomagnetic lines, producing light emissions at high altitudes similar in some ways to auroras. It is possible that an atmospheric wave could carry energy toward the upper layers of the atmosphere, releasing it there even though the initial disturbance is not directly audible from the ground. This interpretation highlights the need for careful analysis of multiple signals rather than a single phenomenon when assessing seismic precursors.
Similarly, a drop in humidity does not reliably signal an impending quake. Fluctuations in moisture are common as weather systems shift, and dramatic changes can occur without any associated seismic activity. Relying on a lone humidity change could lead to false alarms if the broader meteorological context is not considered. In practical terms, a temporary spike or drop in relative humidity should be interpreted with caution, especially in regions prone to variable climate conditions.