Corn markets are likely to stay elevated into the next year, driven by harvest patterns in the northern hemisphere and ongoing supply concerns. Spain remains a net importer of grain to meet livestock needs, and maize is the crop of greatest reliance, with imports exceeding 9.5 million tons annually to support animal feed demands.
The spike in corn prices followed the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a surge that has only partially corrected in recent months. This shift coincided with the European Commission’s decision last February to loosen fallow rules, enabling farmers across member states to sow crops such as maize that were previously restricted, including grain supplied from the occupied region.
Questions remain about whether the extra hectares planted with maize and sunflowers within the EU will compensate for Ukraine’s reduced output or if third-country suppliers will be needed to cover the shortfall this year.
Markets moved into early summer with Ukraine unable to meet prior demand levels. The war, coupled with labor shortages as youths were mobilized, and territorial occupations, contributed to a notable contraction in cultivated land within Ukraine. EOS Data Analytics (EOSDA), a leading AI-powered satellite imagery and precision agriculture analytics provider, undertook a dedicated project to evaluate Ukraine’s cultivation for the 2022 season. The study showed that spring planting area contracted by about one third compared with the previous year.
As harvest began, data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture confirmed these forecasts: the corn harvest reached 27 million tons, a drop from 42 million tons in 2021, attributed by officials to the invasion.
Early and standard crop classifications illustrate how different crops appear in imagery, with colors used to distinguish each type.
Historically, Ukraine was the sixth-largest maize producer globally and the leading EU supplier, accounting for a substantial share of the region’s corn exports.
Rail and maritime logistics have faced new hurdles. Russia’s growing influence over the Black Sea and the occupation of several ports raised concerns for importers, even after a corridor agreement among Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey to facilitate grain shipments to the Mediterranean. This prompted the search for alternative routes. Renfe, along with the Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda, arranged a train shipment of around 600 tons of corn crossing the Polish-Ukrainian border and traveling about 2,400 kilometers to Barcelona by rail. Additionally, the sea corridor allowed two vessels carrying 63,000 tons of corn and 27,000 tons of barley to reach Barcelona.
Meanwhile, Western Europe faced drought conditions that reduced yields and limited fallow land compensation for weather-related losses. In Spain, maize production declined roughly 30 percent compared with the previous campaign, a setback tied to irrigation dependencies and restrictions across several hydrographic basins on the Iberian Peninsula.
This ongoing scenario, both within Ukraine and with global markets, helps explain why corn prices have stayed high for months after the war began. On the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn futures were around 683 dollars per 5,000 bushels in the current period, hovering near February levels while remaining below the peaks observed in April and May when prices neared 900 dollars.
It is important to note that Spain’s primary use for corn is animal feed, so price movements here have a direct impact on the meat industry, a cornerstone of the country’s agricultural economy.