The conflicts unfolding around Ukraine and the Middle East prove that geopolitical risk remains a constant in today’s world. In a landscape marked by volatility, any region can confront political or economic instability. The Middle East is now a focal point of security concerns as clashes intensify between Hamas and the Israeli military. For businesses with staff in the area, safeguarding people and assessing risk is a daily priority. Executives acknowledge the range of possible scenarios, including the serious but less likely prospect of a direct clash between Israeli forces and Islamist militias in the south. The situation in Lebanon and wider regional instability adds to the pressure. For instance, one industry leader notes that evacuated operations are being prepared by sea rather than air due to airport closures and safety considerations, reflecting the need to adapt evacuation plans to changing conditions. The early 2024 period saw high-impact events, including targeted killings and attacks across the region, underscoring how quickly tensions can spike and prolong conflict.
International SOS, a global firm focused on country risk and medical evacuation, operates across diverse environments and has established a presence in highly affected areas. The organization is actively tracking the escalation, with many companies choosing to withdraw from the most volatile zones. In conversations, Álvarez de Toledo points to hundreds of evacuation cases handled and a steady stream of advisories issued to clients who decide to stay—emphasizing that risk awareness is ongoing and dynamic.
Clashes to date have involved Islamist militias in southern Lebanon and state forces, yet the overall risk of a rapid regional escalation is viewed as manageable for now. There is no definitive escalation point, such as formal declarations of war or direct attacks on diplomatic sites, according to the company. Nevertheless, there is a clear preference for partial evacuation options should hostilities threaten to intensify in Lebanon. The potential for rapid shifts means organizations are urged to maintain readiness, with contingency measures ready to enact if violence spreads or affects civilian safety. The possibility of airspace closures and wider disruption remains a consideration, which can drive a shift to sea-based evacuation routes when air options become untenable. Planning across multiple scenarios has already involved local suppliers to estimate costs and logistics.
Map the risk
From the perspective of International SOS president Santiago Álvarez de Toledo, caution should not deter business activity in other regions. A structured risk map is essential to inform where operations can safely proceed. For some markets, Africa and Asia are becoming less internationally connected than regions like Latin America, a trend noted in strategic discussions. In West Africa, for example, cultural ties and historic ties inform the approach, but the area carries significant medical risk, with considerations ranging from parasites to malaria. Such health hazards must be weighed carefully as part of risk planning.
The organization supports its clients with a large network of security providers and a broad base of customers. Its work spans engagements with government bodies and ministries, delivering direct services beyond what typical insurance arrangements cover. In one high-profile case, the team provided real-time guidance after a terrorist incident at a hotel, coordinating safety measures until on-site assistance could reach the client.
The leadership emphasizes a proactive stance in risk forecasting. Evacuation orders have been anticipated and, where appropriate, guidance has been issued ahead of escalating tensions abroad. This approach relies on independent risk assessment rather than political agendas, enabling precise warnings based on current conditions and forecasts. The emphasis remains on practical, actionable steps that protect people while preserving the ability to continue essential operations where feasible.