Hidden mortgage risk rises while defaults remain contained

Contrary to what was expected in prior crises, the automatic renewal of bank loans did not rise during the recent period. The pandemic and inflation shocks over the last three years did not push households to default at higher rates. In fact, despite Euribor climbing steadily, March mortgage rates held at a 2.1% level, the lowest since June 2008, marking a remarkable phase since the onset of the Great Financial Crisis. Banks, savings banks, and credit cooperatives reported a hidden rise in risk, as households struggled to meet debt obligations. By the end of March, mortgage debt at risk in the private sector reached 25,809 million euros, with nonpayment indicators showing a 13.4% year-on-year increase and a 0.43% rise from December, according to data from the Bank of Spain.

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