In October, Israel faced a day that would mark its 75-year history as never before. The death toll rose to 1,149 people in cold blood and 240 were abducted as hostages. The event upended the aura of security that had long surrounded the Jewish state and briefly reframed the Palestinian cause on the international stage. Hamas appeared to win a moment in the spotlight, yet not the broader struggle to restore Palestinians’ rights. Tragedy, it seemed, opened a doorway for new international attention. Global sympathy for Israel spread widely, and internal political fissures were temporarily quieted by a decisive political move. The international climate shifted, offering an opening to halt the fighting and push toward a new security framework for Gaza, while pressing Hamas to stop its actions against civilians.
Three months into the conflict, Israel remained relatively calm but far from meeting its stated aims. The country faced a relentless, uncompromising assault from a trapped adversary with limited escape routes. The tactic of periodically attacking the Strip intensified, likened by some to a relentless mowing of a lawn. In the first two months alone, more than 29,000 bombs were dropped, a figure that stands in stark contrast to comparable six-year wartime bombings in the region, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. The objective, as described by authorities, appeared to be to render the area uninhabitable. The devastation of civilian infrastructure and the suffering of civilians—hunger, disease, and mass displacement—were unprecedented. About two million people were displaced, with thousands of child casualties among the total of more than 22,000 Palestinian victims and 55,000 injured. Israeli officials, however, claimed that a portion of the casualties were among militants. [Attribution: U.S. intelligence sources; Israeli statements]
None of these efforts brought the war any closer to an end date. The goals announced by Israel, as acknowledged by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in various remarks and at year’s end, were not within easy reach of military operations. The Chief of Staff suggested the fighting could extend for months, a sentiment echoed by the Prime Minister during New Year’s Eve remarks. In Gaza, about 129 hostages remained unaccounted for after a prisoner exchange—105 released and 18 killed in captivity—while many families pressed for safer releases. Netanyahu emphasized a priority of retaliation, a stance that drew anger from the families waiting for news. [Attribution: official statements and media coverage]
Hamas’ military structure
The military capability of Hamas appeared severely diminished. Estimated at roughly 26 battalions, each composed of hundreds to a thousand fighters before the war, several units were destroyed in the early stages. Assessments from the Institute for the Study of War—an established policy think tank—placed the outlook into a cautious frame, noting the loss of some units and a few remaining groups operating with reduced strength. In some cases, smaller units continued to fight independently or in loose coalitions with others, but their overall firepower had waned. [Attribution: Institute for the Study of War]
Palestinian groups did not cease rocket launches entirely. On New Year’s Eve, about thirty projectiles were fired toward southern and central Israel. Hebrew officials reported a total of roughly 12,000 launches since October 7, with the resulting casualties tallying 15 lives lost in the latest round of attacks. [Attribution: Israeli military sources]
The leadership of the Islamic Resistance Movement presented a paradox. Civilian populations in Gaza faced numerous alleged violations of the laws of war, yet the leadership did not pay a proportional price for the events of October 7. In the same week, Saleh Al Arouri, the second-in-command for the organization’s political bureau outside Gaza, was killed in a drone strike in Lebanon. He became the only high-profile target confirmed to have been eliminated to date. Mossad repeated its pledge to pursue such figures wherever they might be. The remaining leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and the top figures of Hamas’ military wing, continued to operate. [Attribution: various intelligence reports and media coverage]
Restore deterrence stood as another major objective of the campaign, but the calculation proved difficult. The defense minister stressed the need for Israel to maintain its security margin in the region. Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon kept up a persistent pressure, while Yemen’s Houthi movement added a new dimension to the regional security dynamic. Amid this backdrop, Palestinians in Gaza retained a sense of resilience after more than half a century under occupation. Popular sentiment in the West Bank rose, and sympathy for Gaza’s plight persisted in many parts of the world. [Attribution: regional security analyses]
Beyond the battlefield, the broader strategic consequences began to crystallize. Some analysts argued that normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia were edging toward completion even as war considerations persisted, a shift that would redefine regional peace dynamics. A Washington Institute survey suggested that a large share of the Saudi public opposed normalization. Global opinion also shifted, with demonstrations in London, Washington, and several capitals signaling mounting concern. Observers described a narrative in which actions by Israel were viewed as coercive and potentially outside the bounds of international norms. [Attribution: policy think-tank report; international media coverage]
These factors collectively suggested a difficult reality for Israel: the appearance of strategic success on certain fronts contrasted with deeper questions about the war’s broader aims and legitimacy. The saying once attributed to a late statesman, sometimes cited in discussions on conventional warfare, offered a stark frame: a conventional army may win battles yet struggle to secure a lasting victory when the political and moral dimensions are not aligned. [Attribution: historical commentary]