The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and Israel have reportedly settled on the core elements of a potential 40-day ceasefire, including a swap: 40 Israeli captives for 404 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli facilities. This information, relayed to EFE by Palestinian and Egyptian sources close to the Cairo talks, marks a key moment in the ongoing negotiations.
So far, the two sides are said to have agreed to a 40-day truce during which 40 Israeli hostages would be released, including women, children, and men over 60, in exchange for the release of 404 Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because talks continue in Egypt’s capital, emphasize this frame as the baseline of the discussion rather than a final pact.
Within this framework, it is also believed that Israel would withdraw from the centers of cities across the Gaza Strip in the first phase. It would also allow displaced residents in the southern border city of Rafah to return to the northern and central areas of Gaza, restoring some movement and stability for affected families.
Additionally, the same sources indicate that another provision would see at least 500 aid trucks entering Gaza daily, ensuring a steady flow of humanitarian relief to those in need within the enclave.
According to the sources, there has not yet been an official public statement from Hamas or Israel. Israel is reportedly reluctant to promise a future invasion of Rafah, and the talks are expected to produce an agreement that could take effect by Friday, March 8, just before the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan.
Despite the outline of these core points, several disagreements persist that could delay any public declaration of a ceasefire. The sources note that in negotiation rooms, new points surface each day. At one point yesterday, Hamas reportedly asked for the return of entire families rather than individuals to the northern areas of Gaza, illustrating how fluid positions can be during talks.
There is also ambiguity about whether among the captives being considered for release there are any who have died, whose bodies remain under Palestinian faction control, or if all listed captives are alive. The precise status of individuals often remains a sensitive and contested area of the negotiations.
The continuing dispute over the names on the lists underscores a broader challenge: Hamas cannot provide the full roster of captives because other factions also hold detainees in Gaza. Egypt, serving as a mediator along with Qatar and the United States, has invited the Palestinian faction Islamic Jihad to participate in the talks in Cairo, though no delegation from that group has yet arrived. This adds another layer of complexity to the process.
Israel has not dispatched any delegation to Cairo either. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that Tel Aviv would send a negotiating team only if Hamas released a public list of captives who remain alive since the October 7 seizure of more than 250 people, a demand that has shaped the dynamics of the discussions.
Hamas has reportedly increased the claimed number of captives killed by Israeli bombardments to 70, whereas Israel has confirmed only about 30 deaths among the roughly 130 captives believed to remain inside Gaza. The discrepancy in casualty figures highlights how data and narratives diverge in the arena of hostage diplomacy and ceasefire talks.
As negotiations persist, observers note that daily shifts in positions and stubborn points of contention can either clear the path toward an agreement or stall it. The dialogue remains fragile, with a shared aim of reducing violence and enabling humanitarian relief, while fundamental trust gaps between the parties continue to color every concession and demand.