At the gates of the Fifth Month of bombardment and siege, the war rages with the same brutality as before. Yet the recent days bring a glimmer of hope. This Thursday, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya traveled to Cairo, continuing talks with Egyptian officials about a potential ceasefire that could pave the way for hostage releases in the Gaza Strip. By day’s end, the Foreign Ministry reported Hamas’s preliminary positive approval of a plan that would enable the release of hostages and a temporary halt to fighting in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, faces two battles: a confrontation in the Palestinian arena and a political struggle to stay in office. The ceasefire could become a turning point in the conflict.
Over the past week, intelligence officials from the American CIA, Mossad, and Shin Bet, along with Egyptian military intelligence, met in Paris with the Prime Minister of Qatar, outlining a ceasefire framework designed to persuade Hamas. The Palestinian group, which has effectively controlled Gaza since 2007, insisted that there would be no agreement unless Israel withdrew all troops from the area. After Qatari and Egyptian mediators presented the latest Israeli proposal, Hamas signaled openness to considering it. The Paris text proposes an initial 40-day phase during which hostilities would pause and civilians would be released in stages, including women, the elderly, and the sick or injured. Roughly 136 hostages still remain, with Israeli and Palestinian sources offering varying casualty tallies. (Reuters)
“The Paris meeting succeeded in folding the proposals into a single approach,” said Majed al-Ansari, noting that Hamas’s preliminary approval hinges on further decisions from Tel Aviv. Reports in Tel Aviv indicated that the war cabinet would convene, though some local outlets suggested no official response from Qatar had been received yet. A Palestinian official close to the talks told Reuters that Hamas was unlikely to reject the offer, provided mediators could secure assurances that Israel would end the war. He added that while mediators had reached agreement on the framework, no side could finalise it without Israel’s explicit commitment to ceasefire. (Reuters)
Netanyahu stands at a crossroads
Gershon Baskin, who helped negotiate the 2011 Shalit deal, recalled in 2011 that details of a possible ceasefire were never fully disclosed at the time. The potential plan might include the release of between 200 and 300 Palestinian detainees, including some with disabilities, alongside provisions for significant humanitarian aid. Baskin suggested that humanitarian convoys could move into Gaza, and that residents might see relief in the northern parts of the territory if a ceasefire steadies. The next phases would cover the exchange of Israeli soldiers held by Hamas and the broader path to ending the conflict, including long-term reconstruction and border crossing reopenings. The aim is to mitigate the humanitarian devastation and stabilize the region for a return of normal life. (Source: discussions referenced by Reuters and regional experts)
Yet certainty remains elusive. Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, have framed the conflict in terms of achieving complete victory over Hamas, while insisting that any withdrawal of forces or prisoner releases must not compromise national security. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister and Netanyahu ally, warned that if the government conceded on major demands, it could topple the coalition. Public pressure has intensified, with street demonstrations reflecting the domestic political strain around the war. (Reuters)
Prisoner swaps and the strategic calculus
If a pact with Hamas paves the way to ending the war and returning prisoners, Netanyahu could face a political shift—yet if the approach stalls, public protests might grow and the government could falter. Four months into the Gaza operation, major objectives remain unmet: Hamas has not been eliminated, hostages have not all been recovered, and the broader security threat still looms. Critics argue that the campaign has failed to deliver decisive gains and has created new adversaries. There is also domestic tension about who controls Gaza’s southern border with the Sinai Peninsula. (Reuters)
Hamas, meanwhile, signaled willingness to release 150 Palestinian security detainees for every Israeli female soldier held. The group reportedly indicated it could barter for more with a broader agreement, rejecting the idea of releasing a small subset of hostages while keeping others as leverage. The diplomats’ hands remain on the table, while the broader conflict continues to unfold with ongoing bombardments in Gaza. (Wall Street Journal and Reuters)