As the Ukraine conflict moves into its fourth month, global estimates place wheat reserves at roughly ten weeks of consumption. These figures come from a food-supply expert at the United Nations, who notes that additional factors like drought in key producing regions are compounding the shortage.
Sara Menker, chief executive of Gro Intelligence, testified before the UN Security Council. She emphasized that the conflict acted as fuel for a long-standing food security crisis rather than its sole cause.
Ukraine has long been considered a primary supplier, a so-called breadbasket, with Russia and Ukraine collectively accounting for about one-third of world wheat exports.
British publication The Telegraph reports that the UN has already warned world wheat stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, a result of a supply disruption described as a once-in-a-generation event.
Following these remarks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Russia of weaponizing food. Speaking to the UN Security Council, Blinken described Russia as holding food hostage to Ukrainians and to millions globally.
“The Russian government seems to believe that wielding food as a weapon will help accomplish what the invasion failed to achieve: breaking the spirit of the Ukrainian people,” Blinken stated.
Menker notes that droughts worldwide exacerbate the reduction in wheat resources. She also highlights how climate change and fertilizer shortages are affecting the global food chain.
“Right now we have only ten weeks of global consumption in stock. Current conditions are worse than those seen in 2007 and 2008,” she explained.
Menker pointed out that official government estimates place wheat stocks at roughly 33% of annual consumption, but her Gro Intelligence models suggest the figure may be closer to 20%, a level not observed since 2007 and 2008.
“It’s important to note that the lowest-ever grain stocks are unfolding right now while access to fertilizers remains limited,” she said. “The drought in wheat-producing regions around the world is the most extreme in more than twenty years.”
These concerns extend beyond wheat, as maize and other grains face similar pressures on their stocks.
Attribution: Telegraph report indicating the global wheat stock situation as reported in May 2022.
The environment department is monitoring conditions globally to assess ongoing impacts on agricultural supply chains and prices in major markets.