People live on a planet that seems large until it is considered in human terms. The space for children’s games feels tiny when viewed from adulthood. The earth’s circumference is a little over 40,000 km, a distance we often travel in our daily lives without noticing.
Billions of people share this small planet each day, drawing on vast resources while generating substantial waste. It hardly feels bold to claim that human activity leaves a global footprint. Scientific research confirms this early and visible sign of the human condition on earth: global warming.
Global warming and its effects
During the 1980s, the average global air temperature began to rise. This increase can be traced to the natural variability of climate as well as human influence.
As the century closed, the net warming became statistically significant, evidenced by satellite measurements and weather station data. Global warming had become a recognized reality.
Global warming is becoming more noticeable as time passes.
The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides the most comprehensive view of recent climate trends and future projections. It notes a temperature rise of about 1.1℃ in the early decades of the 21st century relative to the late 19th century baseline.
Even a rise of roughly 1.1℃ over a century is not trivial. It translates into a profound increase in the heat stored within the Earth system, affecting air, oceans, and land at multiple scales.
Today, the warming projection often cited is around 1.2℃ to 1.5℃, a threshold repeatedly emphasized at international conferences. Crossing that line could trigger serious or irreversible consequences for human life and property.
Warming brings additional effects, including shrinking Arctic sea ice, reduced ice cover on Greenland and Antarctica, and widespread retreat of mountain glaciers.
Sea-level rise is another consequence, with an average increase of about 4 mm per year. Like temperature, this trend may seem remote, but it implies a two-inch rise in a century and a higher risk of impacts on densely populated coastal zones.
The vulnerability of the Mediterranean basin
In the Mediterranean region, which encompasses much of the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands, temperature increases have been larger than the global average. This area is a hot spot for warming, with forecasts suggesting a continued rise that could reach around 1.4℃ to 1.5℃ in coming years.
Seasonal precipitation patterns have shifted, with autumn becoming wetter in some areas while spring rain declines in others. This shift poses risks for crops that rely on seasonal moisture, even though overall rainfall trends remain variable by location.
Drought and heat waves
The climate system is bringing more meteorological risk. Heat waves and droughts are becoming more frequent, intense, and prolonged. In Spain, these extremes often occur together, amplifying pressure on agriculture, ecosystems, and the broader economy. The combined impact is greater than the sum of each event alone.
Urban areas facing heat islands experience higher night temperatures, worsening sleep quality and stressing vulnerable populations. When nights fail to cool below 20℃, the effect is a warmer climate that harms health, especially for the elderly and those with chronic illnesses who lack reliable cooling.
Fossil fuels and the climate emergency
The evidence for warming is clear enough that denial has become untenable. The main drivers include fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, along with widespread changes in land use. This reality has sparked a climate emergency recognized by governments, universities, and research institutions around the world.
The climate system, particularly the oceans, shows significant inertia. Water has a high heat capacity, meaning it stores and releases heat slowly. Even if fossil fuel use ended tomorrow, it would take decades to reverse much of the warming due to this inertia.
In practical terms, urgent action is needed now to minimize future risks. A common analogy is a large vessel steaming toward a dock at too high a speed; inertia would make a sudden stop impossible, and the risk of a collision remains high.
Climate future
Climate models suggest that a strong push to cut greenhouse gas emissions could bring substantial benefits. If emissions decline by around 45% from 2010 levels and continue toward carbon neutrality by mid-century, warming could stabilize near 1.5℃ and then gradually ease. Persisting dependence on fossil fuels and a consumer-oriented economy could push temperatures well above 4℃ by the century’s end, an outcome many find unacceptable.
The future hinges on collective choices. With a global population approaching 8 billion and heading toward 10 billion, both emission reductions and adaptation for new climatic conditions are essential to reduce risk and protect lives and livelihoods.
The topic remains central to policy, research, and everyday decisions, urging communities to rethink energy use, land management, and resilience in the face of a warming world.