The Lancet Countdown report, prepared by an international panel of scientists and published in the renowned medical journal The Lancet, highlights a stark projection: deaths linked to extreme heat could multiply by about 4.7 times by mid‑century, with Europe bearing a notable share. The study also names the principal drivers, pointing to the interplay between large fossil fuel corporations and public policy as a major factor in rising global temperatures. Financing from banks that support fossil fuels is identified as a key contributor to warming, and the report emphasizes the role of both private finance and government subsidies in sustaining high emissions.
“The financial sector also contributes to health threats from global warming.” Private banks reportedly provided substantial loans to fossil fuels up to billions of dollars in recent years. The report notes this activity during the 2017–2021 period, underscoring the scale of support for fossil fuel projects.
Total loans from private banks to the fossil fuel sector totaled 572 billion dollars in the 2017–2021 period
The top 40 private banks financing fossil fuels disbursed an estimated 489 billion dollars per year across 2017–2021. The report observes that loan growth between 2010 and 2016 was particularly strong, a trend that further jeopardizes the transition toward decarbonisation.
More money for oil than for health
Subsidies and financial support for oil and gas go beyond banking. Governments themselves continue to back these sectors. Despite solid scientific consensus on the climate risks of fossil fuels, a substantial share of analyzed governments directed net subsidies totaling about 305 billion dollars to fossil fuels in 2020. In many cases, these subsidies exceeded national health expenditures by double digits or more in several countries.
The fossil fuel industry remains a major force in global energy, and its activity has a direct impact on public health. The sector has continued to plan higher production, with growth forecasts for the world’s largest oil and gas companies indicating a persistent path of expansion rather than rapid decline in fossil energy output.
The world’s 20 leading oil and gas corporations increased their production forecasts relative to the prior year, a shift that could push greenhouse gas emissions beyond the trajectories compatible with keeping warming near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by a substantial margin. If unaddressed, this trajectory would move away from Paris Agreement commitments and delay meaningful climate action.
Only a small portion of capital investments—around 4%—is channeled toward renewable energy according to the report, signaling a continued challenge for energy diversification and a healthier future.
Towards 2.7°C warming rather than 1.5°C
The accumulation of subsidies and continued fossil fuel expansion signals a troubling global trend. While the Paris Agreement aspires to cap warming at 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels by century’s end, current trajectories suggest a path toward about 2.7°C by 2100. This would create severe risks for health, food security, and livelihoods worldwide. The authors warn that lives—present and future—are at stake if action is not intensified.
“The continued expansion of fossil fuels is a death sentence for millions of people.”
The UN Secretary‑General has been clear on the stakes. The ongoing growth of fossil fuel use is framed as a direct threat to health and safety. To avert the worst outcomes, temperature rise must be held to 1.5°C, and rapid climate action is essential.
Even with ongoing climate pressures, emissions continue to track upward. Global average temperatures have edged higher, and heat events are becoming more frequent. In recent years, climate research teams comprising hundreds of experts from dozens of institutions have compiled evidence showing that heat-related health risks rise markedly with each additional degree of warming.
Despite the challenges, a positive thread runs through the report: the rise of clean energy. The narrative highlights reductions in some pollution pathways and a notable shift toward renewable energy sources as investment flows increasingly toward sustainable options.
Deaths attributable to air pollution from fossil fuels have fallen in some regions due to cleaner technologies and stronger pollution controls. Global investment in clean energy rose in the early 2020s, reaching levels that outpaced fossil fuel investment in many cases. Clean energy credits and the growth of renewables contributed substantially to the expansion of electricity capacity in the period analyzed.
Reference work: Lancet Countdown on health and climate change
These findings underscore the need for robust policy action, transparent financing, and sustained investment in health‑protective measures as societies navigate the climate transition.