As global events intensify—ranging from the ongoing Ukraine conflict to renewed violence in the Middle East and interruptions to human rights and humanitarian efforts—the international agenda for 2024 is shaping up to be highly consequential. The Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, CIDOB, released a briefing this week outlining the issues that will likely define the coming year. CIDOB director Pol Morillas notes that 2024 is poised to be a year marked by competition in shaping both political power and security, with elections spreading across more than 70 countries and multiple conflicts feeding global volatility.
Across the globe, more than 4 billion people, roughly 51 percent of the world’s population, will be eligible to vote in key nations with significant demographic or geopolitical influence, including the United States and members of the European Parliament. These electoral processes will influence major questions about the roles of countries such as India, Russia, Taiwan, Mexico, Indonesia, and Venezuela on the world stage, and will test the resilience of democracies as some leaders use ballots to consolidate power. CIDOB notes a trend toward polarization, with a rising portion of voters supporting hybrid or non-democratic governance models. The research also highlights a growing concern as elections are used as a thermometer to gauge the ascent of far-right movements, according to international analyst Carme Colomina.
Artificial intelligence is expected to play a notable role in 2024. While current campaigns may employ AI in relatively straightforward ways to craft targeted messaging, CIDOB warns that more sophisticated manipulation could emerge in the year ahead. The center anticipates an era of rapid, widespread experimenting with AI tools in political communication, following recent regulatory steps in the European Union to legalize certain AI capabilities. This context frames 2024 as a year of heightened potential for both technological innovation and strategic misinformation.
war in Gaza
The October 7 attack on Gaza by Israel in response to Hamas actions stands as a central geopolitical issue for the year ahead. CIDOB researcher Musa Bourekba explains that the next phase of the Israeli campaign will depend on evolving military, diplomatic, and humanitarian dynamics, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled continued military operations in Gaza until Hamas is significantly weakened. The broader regional and international consequences are already visible, including growing international isolation and shifting alliances.
Regionally, the conflict touches neighboring states and actors, with Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and tensions along the Yemen border affecting global trade and security. The involvement of Lebanese and other regional forces further complicates the landscape, underscoring how localized confrontations can amplify broader strategic competition. Bourekba emphasizes that peaceful resolution will require addressing the long-standing issue of a Palestinian state alongside questions about the borders and governance of occupied territories, a topic unlikely to be resolved quickly given political hesitations among key players.
Looking ahead, 2024 is framed as a year of consolidation on the global stage. The Global South is pushing back against Western leadership as BRICS expands influence with member states and partner economies. The bloc’s growth includes new entrants from the region and beyond, signaling a shifting balance in global governance and economic arrangements. This expansion places about 46 percent of the world’s population and 29 percent of global GDP within a broader, more plural alignment. CIDOB suggests the world may see a spectrum of blocs that are increasingly diverse and heterogeneous, a reality that could yield paradoxes in areas such as Ukraine, where European and American unity has faced pressure from evolving geopolitical currents. The political landscape also features a potential reshaping of alliances in the United States, where leadership change could influence support for international engagements and aid priorities.