As the world gradually moves beyond the worst of the covid era, new shocks arise, notably an aggressive conflict in Ukraine that began in February 2022 and sent ripples across the international stage. The crisis hit every corner of life: energy prices surged, inflation climbed, food security wavered, and security structures and governance networks faced serious strain. This situation serves as a vivid instance of how the current global order remains fragile and how persistent crises affect people personally. Looking ahead, 2023 was seen by observers as a pivotal year for this ongoing cycle of disruption, a sentiment echoed by Esade Geo Global Economy and Geopolitics in collaboration with CIDOB, the Barcelona-based Center for International Affairs.
“Complexity is not inherently negative and should inform responses to these crises,” CIDOB director Pol Morillas noted during the memo’s presentation. The think tank outlines ten issues likely to shape the international agenda in the new year and emphasizes that solutions will require adaptive strategies rather than simple fixes.
In the Ukraine crisis, CIDOB uses the analogy of an American pool table where Russia’s invasion acts like a falling pool ball. The action has accelerated ongoing transformations and crises, reshaping the landscape in which policy decisions unfold, according to Carme Colomina, the lead researcher and coordinator of the report. A peaceful resolution or negotiations that could reduce tensions seem unlikely at present. The experts suggest that neither side currently sees an agreement as more beneficial than continuing the conflict.
Among the consequences anticipated for 2023, CIDOB highlights continued pressures on achieving reliable access to essential goods such as food and energy, sluggish economic growth, and the risk of a persistent recession. There are concerns that the push for green and digital transitions may slow due to renewed unrest and protests around the world, further undermining energy stability. After a winter marked by strikes and demonstrations, it remains to be seen how these movements will influence policy outcomes. The analysts observe that protests are increasing in number, yet their effectiveness is diminishing in many cases.
Others
In its assessment, CIDOB summarizes potential geostrategic repercussions of this permanent crisis and the role of middle powers that wield regional influence while pursuing broader global clout. Countries like Turkey, Brazil, India, and Saudi Arabia are highlighted as actors capable of tipping the balance among the major powers—namely the United States, Russia, and China—and they may pursue open channels of cooperation with all sides.
CIDOB’s section on democracies and autocracies notes a trend toward rising authoritarianism, even as autocratic regimes face internal pressures. Examples include ongoing protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini, which have been framed as a sustained struggle against coercive policies. In China, the easing consequences of the zero-Covid policy and broader tensions create a sense of uncertainty ahead. In Russia, the war has intensified internal pressures around leadership and governance. These dynamics reinforce the idea that regime stability is increasingly tested by external and internal shocks.
Regarding China’s role, attention is drawn to the evolving confrontation with Taiwan. East Asia analysts emphasize that any clash or blockade could have drastic economic effects given that a substantial portion of global maritime trade traverses the Taiwan Strait. The geopolitical calculus surrounding this region remains a critical variable for 2023 and beyond.
On transatlantic relations, analysts observe ongoing tensions between the United States and the European Union over policy directions, including inflation-reduction measures and trade protections. The consensus remains that a robust alliance endures and has shown resilience even after the upheavals of the war. The overarching metaphor of the pool table continues to describe how unforeseen events can alter forecasts, timing, and strategic choices, including the potential for nuclear or other catastrophic incidents. The report urges vigilance and measured responses to avoid destabilizing missteps that could escalate tensions across regions.