The digital era has brought massive changes in the first two decades of the 21st century. Maurici Lucena, the president and chief executive of Aena, spoke alongside journalist Robert Kaplan and Martí Saballs, director of Economic Information at Prensa Ibérica, about the current economic landscape. A notable feature is the rise of the middle class. More countries are offering development opportunities to their people. Kaplan pointed out that in China there is a growing middle class, and several Sub-Saharan countries are developing one as well. This trend is likely to lead to higher political tensions as citizens demand more rights and higher standards from their leaders. The discussion took place during the Mediterranean Economic and Social Forum held in Valencia with support from the La Caixa Foundation .
“Although every era has its challenges, climate change, artificial intelligence, and large-scale migration are steering us toward an unprecedented environment. There is a sense that liberal democracy is weakening globally,” Lucena remarked. He noted that Kaplan’s books, while demanding, offer compelling perspectives, including a recent excellent work on the Adriatic. Kaplan added that the current times are unusually complex, underscoring how digitalization has transformed the world, amplified the middle class, and raised expectations of political leaders across nations.
Lucena acknowledged that each generation faces crossroads that once seemed unique. “My own sense of pessimism may color my view of today as more intricate, but this is how I perceive reality right now,” he explained.
Kaplan agreed that the present moment is profoundly complex. “We are at a critical point in history. Digital transformation has reshaped our world, and the rise of a more demanding middle class is pressing politicians everywhere as never before,” he stated.
China and the United States tensions
Kaplan warned that the China–US relationship is more dangerous now than in the era of Henry Kissinger. “Relations between the United States and China have grown more aggressive, altering the balance that once existed. China pursues ambitions in the Pacific, which concerns the United States,” Kaplan cautioned. Lucena recalled Kissinger’s belief in a calmer, more cooperative China–US approach to avoid direct confrontation.
Regarding the upcoming US elections on November 5, Kaplan noted that predicting the outcome is very difficult. “Any event could tilt the scales toward Biden or Trump,” he said, highlighting that much of the southern United States views immigration with skepticism.
In light of the political climate in the United States, Lucena expressed concern about the broader erosion of democracy in the Western world. He referenced scholars such as Lewinsky, Applebaum, Fukuyama, and Madeleine Albright as potential contributors to the discussion, while Kaplan suggested that global dynamics, including migration, should also be considered in understanding these trends.
Saballs pointed out that Arab investment is increasingly filtering into Spanish companies. He noted that STC joined Telefónica’s equity, and a Abu Dhabi-based fund nearly did so with Naturgy. Kaplan concluded that the Saudis have established a governance model that pairs strong services for their people with political stability. He added that diversification of the economy remains a priority for Saudis as they pursue large-scale investments in strategic companies.