The operational evolution of jihadist extremism and the dispersion of core Al Qaeda and ISIS structures into regional branches have pushed Europe into a new phase of terrorism this year. Two distinct phenomena mark this shift: spontaneous attacks by self-radicalized individuals and planned assaults carried out by organized cells with logistical support and direction from a central hub.
It is one of the key takeaways from the 2023 Terrorism Almanac on Jihadist Movements, a publication of the International Observatory for Terrorism Studies (OIET), associated with a Basque victims’ organization. The report highlights a central player gaining global prominence: ISIS’s Khorasan Province, also known as ISKP or ISK, which covers parts of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The ISKP has been rapidly elevated in public consciousness following the Crocus City Hall attack near Moscow, which claimed 137 lives, illustrating a trend toward greater lethality in the year under review.
As decentralization takes hold within ISIS and Al Qaeda, regional franchises expand in influence while ISKP broadens its global aims, positioning itself as a competitor to its parent network, notes the overview. The analysis underscores a new paradigm after a year that saw arrests, takedowns, and investigations across Germany, Austria, Sweden, and France, revealing active cells in Europe and foreshadowing recent attacks abroad in Iran and Moscow.
The emergence of ISKP presents a double threat to the West, particularly Europe. For Spanish security forces, the predominant risk remains solo actors carrying out low-cost attacks with little more than personal interpretation of online propaganda. Yet a resurfacing danger looms across Europe: well-coordinated teams capable of planning large-scale attacks designed to maximize casualties, reminiscent of the 2014–2017 period.
“There are two models in this stage,” says Igualada. “One involves individuals with no direct ties to established organizations who attack with a knife, a vehicle, or whatever is at hand; the other features a more coordinated method, with instructions from a central source and access to logistical, operational, and financial resources.” This latter pattern describes the group behind the Moscow atrocity.
There is concern that these cells may link up, or that one ISKP cell intent on settling in Europe could receive sanctuary from a lone actor. The danger lies not only in direct connections but also in the possibility of a hybrid approach that blends solitary violence with linked networks.
Islamist extremism continues to cling to the ideological goal of a universal caliphate, though its global reach has shifted toward regional affiliates. ISKP, as a direct offshoot, brings renewed aggressiveness and broader ambitions into Europe, breaking free from the purely regional focus of Central Asia.
For 2023, terrorist actions attributed to Islamist militants resulted in 9,572 fatalities across 2,304 incidents. While this year’s attack count mirrors the previous year, the death toll surged significantly, reflecting a sharper level of violence. The authors suggest that the uptick in lethality is driven by ISKP’s activities, though West Africa remains a critical hotspot for jihadist activity. Mali and Burkina Faso account for nearly half of all victims in the period under review, marking the region as a persistent epicenter of danger.
The report also notes an evolving pattern in jihadist narratives. The organization of content around modern conflicts, including the Israeli-Palestinian clash, Pakistan-India tensions, and broader Middle East instability, provides fertile ground for new radicalization and the acceleration of existing processes. The Gaza crisis is seen as a catalyst for potential future attacks targeting Israeli and Western interests globally, at least in the near term.
Propagandists exploit current events such as the desecration of religious texts, armed clashes in Sudan, and the ongoing war in Ukraine to craft biased, self-serving narratives. The al-Qaida and Daesh networks have also seen leadership losses that complicate operational planning, even as local campaigns persist against existing governments in regions like Afghanistan, where ISKP continues to challenge Kabul’s authority through a localized strategy.
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