After decades of steady growth in greenhouse gas emissions, scientists are examining a potential turning point. 2024 may mark the first year in which the atmospheric curve shows a decline. This moment could be a historic step toward addressing the central threat facing the planet: global warming. A report from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom suggests that 2024 could be the year emissions begin to decrease.
New Scientist notes that CO2 levels and the greenhouse effect have risen almost continuously since the Industrial Revolution. The year 2023 followed this pattern, with emissions up by about 1% compared with the previous year, according to the Global Carbon Budget compiled by Pierre Friedlingstein and his team at Exeter.
The timeline shows the trend of emissions from pre-industrial times to 2022 as tracked by the Global Carbon Atlas. This context helps readers understand the magnitude of any shift in 2024 and beyond.
However, changes may be underway in 2024. Rapid advances in renewable energy, according to researchers, have helped bend the harmful CO2 curve. Even though industrial activity continues to grow, clean energy sources are becoming more dominant, and there is growing optimism about reducing emissions without sacrificing economic vitality.
China’s key role
Earlier forecasts from major bodies, including the International Energy Agency, anticipated fossil fuel emissions peaking in 2025 and then gradually declining. Yet the continued expansion of renewable energy, especially in large economies like Europe, China, and the United States, is affecting those timelines. Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating in China and in several European nations, contributing to a push toward a decisive moment for cleaner energy. This marks the beginning of a transition away from dirty fuels, though the change will not occur instantly.
The Global CO2 emissions trend remains a critical reference point for policymakers and researchers worldwide as they monitor progress toward cleaner energy systems.
A recent study by CREA, based in Helsinki, indicates that China could reach a peak in emissions by about 2030, even as the government continues to approve new coal power capacity to meet energy needs. CREA’s chief analyst, Lauri Myllyvirta, argues that the country may experience a structural decline in emissions starting in 2024.
Other research teams estimate that peak emissions by 2030 may be more aggressive than previously thought. While some oil-producing regions plan to expand production, the rapid growth of renewable energy suggests a sustained shift toward lower emissions across the global energy mix.
The COP28 climate summit set a target to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Experts view this as essential to limiting global warming to about 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels. The challenge remains substantial, and many believe the path to that target will be gradual, with gradual reductions in emissions rather than immediate elimination.
Note: The information above references analysis from credible sources including New Scientist and CREA. Marked citations provide attribution to the original research and context for readers seeking deeper insight.
Endnote: For further reading, consult the cited studies from New Scientist and the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air for in-depth data and regional specifics.