Current policies and measures implemented to reduce emissions are not enough to reach net zero targets by 2050. A recent international analysis highlights a persistent gap between what is needed and what is being done, pointing to a broader energy transition that must accelerate across regions.
In its analysis, the report Global Energy, Energy and Geopolitics: Trends and Uncertainties argues that the world faces a widening CO2 emissions gap of 23 to 27 gigatons by 2050, depending on the measures adopted. This gap underscores the scale of action required in technology deployment, policy reform, and investment decisions across sectors.
The starting point of the assessment focuses on population projections, forecasting more than 10 billion people by 2060 and the direct impact this will have on global energy demand. At present, nations such as China and India are driving notable increases in emissions, with substantial growth observed since 1990.
With rising population and higher demand, investment dynamics around renewable energy are strengthening. Emerging solutions like hydrogen energy are gaining momentum, with demand anticipated to reach 115 million tonnes by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. This shift reflects a growing belief that clean fuels will play a pivotal role in meeting demand while reducing carbon intensity.
Yet the report stresses that current measures remain insufficient as major powers push two primary strategies to close the emissions gap.
The first strategy emphasizes energy adaptation away from fossil fuels, which elevates the importance of securing supplies of critical materials. The second centers on industrial policy reforms that foster sector growth at the national level. This dual approach aims to create resilient energy systems while expanding domestic capabilities in key technologies.
Green industrial policy
The analysis notes that the energy sector accounts for a substantial share of global greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption remains heavily tied to fossil fuels. Consequently, governments are urged to begin shifting away from non-renewable fuels and to invest in clean energy infrastructure that supports scalable deployment of new technologies.
Building the needed infrastructure necessitates access to critical minerals such as lithium and copper. The explained policy scenario indicates that demand for these resources will stretch resources further, with growth projections showing significant expansion by mid-century.
In this framework, nations rich in mineral resources stand to gain a strategic advantage. The analysis highlights regions and countries where mineral endowments are substantial, and where export quotas and supply arrangements could influence global markets for rare minerals.
Reactivation of industrial policy is now in focus, with the United States, China, and the European Union taking the lead in a concerted effort. Generous subsidies for companies and consumers in key technology sectors are being deployed to accelerate the green transition. While progress is evident in many areas, the analysis notes that China currently leads certain segments of the green technology market and remains a dominant player in several crucial supply chains.
Reference material is provided for broader context and verification, summarizing the key trends without directing readers to external sources within the text itself.
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