Current research points to a possible doubling in global delivery volume. Annual package shipments could rise from more than 315,000 million in 2022 to about 800,000 million by 2030. If this pace continues, the environmental footprint of last mile logistics will grow significantly, even before any new policy actions are considered.
Researchers highlight that the delivery fleet feeding online shopping already accounts for a large share of emissions. Without changes in how these fleets operate, shipments in the coming decade may add up to 160 megatonnes of CO2 each year by 2030. That level is comparable to the annual output of 44 coal fired power plants. The study emphasizes the scale of last mile emissions and the urgent need for cleaner delivery options to protect health and the climate.
A key takeaway is that meaningful reductions require substantial changes in how deliveries are powered and organized. The authors point to the potential benefits of electric delivery vehicles and other clean mobility options as a practical path to lower pollution during the final leg of a shipment.
As explained in the analysis, cutting emissions in the last mile matters because the final stretch from a warehouse to a doorstep often drives a large portion of a parcel’s environmental footprint. Shifting away from fossil fuels toward zero emission choices could lessen the pollution associated with everyday online shopping.
In remarks from the study, researchers note that cleaning up last mile logistics would also offer health benefits. They estimate that high emission levels from the final delivery stage contribute to respiratory issues, especially for people in densely populated areas. The analysis links consumer convenience with air quality concerns, inviting policymakers and industry leaders to pursue stronger cleaner mobility commitments in the parcel sector.
Sales data show that most consumers still expect free returns, even when that adds to the environmental footprint. A recent survey by a leading e commerce logistics platform found that returns policies hold different value across generations. Younger consumers tend to be more open to paying for easier or more responsible returns, while older generations may resist extra costs. The report also notes that online purchase returns can vary by channel, with some in store returns achieving lower rates than those processed online.
The full report is available through a cited source. Attribution for the research is provided by the Clean Mobility Collective in partnership with Stand.earth Research Group.