The General Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, warned that Russia should not be underestimated. In Europe, leaders have signaled substantial changes in their defense postures to address potential Russian actions.
“While a large share of Russian ground forces may now be tied down by Ukraine, the possibility remains that Moscow could open a second battlefield,” Zorn cautioned. He noted that much of the Russian fleet is not currently deployed to Ukraine and that the Russian air force retains meaningful capability to challenge NATO. He also pointed to substantial holdings of weapons and equipment in the Russian military.
In Germany, officials have acknowledged that the country’s own resources pledged to Ukraine may be stretched, as inventories on the Bundeswehr side focus on German defense needs. A Bundeswehr spokesperson emphasized that Germany cannot assume risk given the threat posed by Russia.
There is also a concern that Putin could exploit any weakness or temporary gap in NATO’s defensive readiness.
Worrisome Russian developments
American and European officials have repeatedly flagged several recent Russian capabilities — the Zircon hypersonic missiles, the Sarmat intercontinental systems, and Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicles — as topics of ongoing vigilance.
On August 20, Russia’s defense minister announced the start of mass production of Zircon missiles and the continuing output of Kinzhal hypersonic systems. On August 18, a state news agency cited a Defense Ministry source stating that dozens of Onyx supersonic anti-ship missiles would be produced annually.
Earlier, on August 16, it was reported that Russia had placed orders for the newest Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles. Sarmat is a fifth-generation silo-based strategic system designed to replace the Soviet-era missiles known in the West as Satan.
In late July, CNN highlighted the emergence of the Belgorod submarine, equipped with Poseidon nuclear torpedoes, described by observers as unparalleled in history. Officials warned that these torpedoes, launched from long range, could bypass seabed defenses and deliver multi-megaton payloads that might render coasts uninhabitable for years. Poseidons were presented as a tool to threaten coastal cities with radioactive tsunamis.
The philosophy behind defense and deterrence
At the end of May, Germany’s leadership signaled a broad transformation of its armed forces toward Europe’s largest conventional army. In June, Germany announced increased military activity in the Baltic region and finalized an agreement with Lithuania. Officials argued that these steps would bolster the security of Germany and its allies.
Global comparisons place the United States, Turkey, and France at the top of NATO’s regular military strength, with Germany following closely. The composition and size of allied forces are regularly reviewed as part of alliance defense planning.
In June, the United States announced the reactivation of elements of the 11th Airborne Division in Alaska, expanding its rapid-response capabilities. The unit is commonly associated with historical airborne operations and will be supported by additional aviation and artillery assets, expanding overall readiness to roughly 12,000 personnel in the division. This move underscores the importance of robust, dispersed forces in Europe and beyond.
France’s leadership indicated a shift toward a war economy in response to the Ukraine situation and requested a review of long-term military planning to ensure the defense establishment remains aligned with evolving geopolitical realities. The aim is to secure sustained investments that support a modern, capable force.
British officials emphasized the goal of fielding an army able to deter and defeat adversaries alongside allies, highlighting the need to maintain strong forces in Europe. Reports noted that Britain has begun adjusting its regular army levels to manage long-term commitments while preserving strategic capability.
In late June, President Joe Biden announced measures to strengthen American presence in Europe, including deploying additional air assets and increasing naval capacity at key overseas bases. Separately, the ongoing ratification processes for Finland and Sweden joining NATO continued amid the broader security scenario in Europe.