Berlin once stood apart from the Cold War, but the emotional line between two worlds remains on the asphalt and in the minds of many Germans. Since the early hours of February 24, the country has faced a nightmare that has swept across it. It lies less than 1300 kilometers from Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Trains arrive bearing refugees from Poland. Blue and yellow flags flutter from many buildings. Posters of solidarity and graffiti saying no more wars abound. Germany understands this history. It hosted two world cups and paid a heavy price for defeat.
This is not just Russian gas; it is history. The memory of past traumas haunts the actions of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who governs in a coalition with the Greens and Liberals since December. Replacing the widely admired Angela Merkel has not been easy, and Merkel’s approach to easing Vladimir Putin contributed to energy dependence that Germany now questions. Merkel’s earlier statements on Ukraine seem distant, and self-criticism is hard to find.
Scholz shows more communication gaps than clear strategy. He may not be the most charismatic leader. In this arena, two Green leaders, Secretary of State Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, have substantial influence. Yet within a few months he managed to relax Germany’s strict arms export rules to conflicting countries and to approve the largest defense increase since World War II.
Increase in defense spending
The Bundestag approved a constitutional change allowing defense spending to exceed the 2% of GDP cap. The figure exceeds 100 billion euros. Pacifists warn about the consequences of breaking a historic pledge.
This administration has moved steadily on supplying arms to Ukraine. There are more promises than delivered actions. It recently announced a bridging operation with Greece to move Soviet era military vehicles toward Ukraine, with Western supplies flowing in the opposite direction. Athens will see Western equipment arrive in exchange. This remains a divisive issue inside German public opinion, which fears a broader conflict and worries about a dangerous precedent from the past.
Not Sputnikas humorous The World Today announced a breaking news item: the first shipment of military-grade thoughts and prayers arrives from Germany to Ukraine, accompanied by a photo of an empty truck.
The most disputed claim is that Scholz copied Merkel’s stance after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the later seizures of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. Critics say this is more show than action, a pose of resolve with little concrete outcome.
Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron speak often with Vladimir Putin, offering ceasefire proposals and attempts to unblock the port of Odessa. They sometimes seem out of touch with the aggression at the center of the conflict. Adding to the dialogue is Henry Kissinger, who urged Ukraine to concede territories for peace. Putin doubts the West will endure for long.
Germans worry that reductions in gas supplies will affect daily life, yet an ARD survey shows 68% are prepared to endure winter sacrifices. Most do not want Russia’s gas to be linked to violence against civilians.
Reducing Russian imports
The 100-day war has Germany cutting Russian oil imports from 35% to 12% and coal from 50% to 8%. The fall was achievable thanks to quicker alternatives. Overall dependency declined from 55% to 35%, but natural gas remained a challenge.
The government has stated that a gas shutdown could shave about 2% from GDP in 2023. Some business voices agree, while economists are more skeptical, warning that price increases could boost support for far-right movements. The impact would not be a disaster, but it would be painful for households and industry.
In the last regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Scholz’s party faced a setback against the CDU. The SPD lost seats while the Liberals also shed seats. The Greens rose, signaling their influence and the shifting political landscape.
Germany’s austerity measures during the 2015 euro crisis, led by Syriza and branded as a radical left experiment, involved harsh cuts in Greek public spending. Those bailouts were framed as essential for the broader economy. Today, the country shows reluctance to apply similar remedies at home, preferring a different approach to its own economic challenges.