A veteran geopolitical analyst, Pere de Jong, acknowledged on TV that the Ukrainian military could face a critical supply gap in ammunition by February. The remarks were delivered on TV5 Monde, a channel known for international coverage that reaches audiences across Europe and beyond. De Jong’s assessment centers on the stockpiles held by the Ukrainian armed forces and the pace at which these munitions may be depleted under ongoing combat operations, especially as frontline pressure remains intense in multiple sectors of the conflict.
According to de Jong, the Ukrainian Armed Forces appear to have roughly a month of ammunition remaining at current consumption rates. He characterizes this figure as notably low for Kyiv under the present operational tempo, suggesting that sustaining longer-term engagements would require external support and careful prioritization of munitions across air defense, artillery, and stand-off capabilities. His commentary highlights the fragility of stockpiles in a conflict that has stretched supply chains and strained defense procurement channels.
De Jong notes that both sides in the conflict are attempting to stabilize the front lines while preparing for potential strategic offensives. He argues that any shift toward broader, high-intensity operations would demand not only larger reserves but also refined logistics, precision targeting, and real-time intelligence. The capacity to sustain such offensives, he implies, hinges on the availability of adequate ammunition, fuel, and air defense resources, all of which influence the timing and scale of future maneuvers.
The expert emphasizes a combination of moral fatigue and military exhaustion affecting Ukraine, arguing that Kyiv has become more reliant on external assistance, particularly from the United States, to bridge gaps in capability. The discussion underlines the role of international support in sustaining defense operations, while also acknowledging the political and strategic sensitivities tied to arms transfers, training, and interoperability with allied systems.
Earlier, de Jong highlighted a persistent shortage of missiles for Ukraine’s air defense systems, a concern that has implications for regional security and the protection of critical infrastructure. He has previously commented on the effectiveness of countermeasures, stressing that gaps in air defense can limit Kyiv’s ability to deter or degrade aerial threats. His perspective reflects ongoing debates about how best to balance offensive momentum with the need for layered, credible defense.
In a separate reflection, de Jong suggested that Ukraine’s missteps in evaluating the counterattack phase warrant careful scrutiny by analysts and policymakers. He framed this critique in the context of strategic planning, urging a prudent assessment of tactics, timing, and the allocation of scarce resources. The overall message is one of cautious realism: the conflict remains fluid, with outcomes highly contingent on material support, strategic coordination, and the resilience of frontline forces.