Gas Prices Downturn and Holiday Forecasts for Fuel Stations

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Gas prices ease as the Easter travel rush approaches and stations anticipate holiday demand

For a while it seemed elusive, but fuel costs have supported a downward trend, giving drivers a welcome break at the gates of a period that typically sees big vehicle movement around holidays. The current price level stands as the lowest in a year, with diesel especially affordable, cheaper than the now-defunct 20-cent bonus that once accompanied the market. This dip also influences forecasts at provincial fuel stations, which project solid holiday sales and hope to reach pre crisis levels from 2019.

The surge in fuel prices was driven by the Ukraine conflict, sanctions on Russia by the European Union, and a ban on imports of oil and related products. The market peaked last June, with gasoline reaching a maximum near 2.120 euros per liter and diesel around 2.039 euros per liter. Since then, prices have gradually declined, though they have fluctuated along the way. The early 2023 period saw renewed downward pressure, helped by softer international refined product prices and a slowdown in global economic growth.

Today, prices rest at their lowest levels since March of the previous year. Gasoline 95 is trading at an average near 1.633 euros per liter, while diesel sits around 1.553 euros per liter. The latest figures show fuel prices dipping below the 20-cent discount price that had been introduced on April 1 last year; back then, the price stood at about 1.852 euros per liter. Gasoline 95 remains just a few cents above the discount price, reflecting the lingering impact of the policy on consumer costs.

Gas stations expect a 10% drop in consumption after discounts expire

Curiously, the decrease in demand was visible just as Holy Week began, and the pattern shows little difference between today and the start of the holiday period. Emilio Córcoles, provincial president of the Federation of Mediterranean Gas Station Entrepreneurs, notes that fuel markets can react quickly to international developments, and what happens in Europe often shapes local outcomes. He emphasizes that Easter in Spain, by itself, is unlikely to alter demand in a meaningful way, given the broader global context.

The industry also hopes for a rush of travelers during the festive season, with many residents from nearby regions planning trips elsewhere. If these expectations materialize, retail outlets aim to restore 2019 sales levels prior to the pandemic, signaling a recovery path that industry stakeholders have long awaited. The sentiment is expressed with a touch of humor as one observer puts it, hoping the journey will eventually bring the sector back to its pre-crisis footing.

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