Four leaks have been recorded in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. This episode marks another milestone in the shrinking supply of Russian gas to Europe, and it may represent the final chapter of a long energy dependency on Russia. The question arises: what was Turkey’s main source of natural gas until recently? The European Union has typically relied on a diverse mix, but ENTSOG, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas, highlights a shift in provider rankings and introduces a clearer picture of where Europe stands today.
According to ENTSOG’s monitoring, which aggregates data on gas arrivals by pipeline and vessel, as well as storage levels across EU countries, Russian gas now accounts for only about 8% of Europe’s total consumption. Before the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s share was close to 50%. Roughly a third of EU gas imports from Russia previously flowed into Germany, underscoring how heavily the German market depended on fossil fuel imports historically, a legacy from the era of the Soviet Union.
Countries with the strongest reliance on Russian gas are typically those lacking robust natural gas infrastructure to switch to alternative fuels. Germany, Austria, and Hungary are notable examples. Germany, in particular, has been pursuing rapid development of degassing and import capacity in the North Sea, aiming for operational status in the coming year to diversify supply sources.
four interconnects
There are four principal gas connections linking Russia to Central Europe: the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines crossing the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream 1 stopped delivering gas at the end of last August due to a technical issue, while Nord Stream 2 never entered service after receiving the necessary German authorizations. The Jamal pipeline has ceased gas deliveries since last May, connecting Russia and Germany via Belarus and Poland. The Ukrainian transit system continues to carry gas, and the Turkish Stream segment provides a route from Russia to Italy through the Black Sea, Turkey, and Greece, continuing operations.
Germany’s economy and climate policy have attracted attention as officials discuss the quantity of Russian gas reaching Europe. Environment and energy ministers have described the current inflows as limited, using vivid metaphors to illustrate the small but persistent presence of Russian gas. Germany has spent months seeking alternatives to a fuel source whose role is shrinking. Industrial production in Germany remains heavily tied to gas consumption, and with reserves already strong, fears of shortages in the colder months prompt careful planning for residential and commercial use.
Presently, ENTSOG data indicate that liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving by ship has become the main source of European gas supply. LNG deliveries, including significant volumes from the United States, surpassed Russian gas in the spring and have solidified their role as a flexible option for Europe.
Norway also presents a key supplementary source of LNG-like supply and has grown to become the second-largest supplier in Europe. This week, governments in Poland, Denmark, and Norway activated the Baltic Pipe project, connecting Denmark and Norway with Eastern Europe and redirecting flows away from Europipe II. The project expands a route roughly 900 kilometers shorter than the old link and increases resilience, though Norway’s overall capacity remains smaller than Russia’s.
MidCat option
Algeria, a major North African gas producer, is positioned as another viable alternative. Italy has already agreed with Algeria to purchase substantial volumes, with a target of 25,000 million cubic meters by year-end as a sign of intensified cooperation. Algerian gas offers substantial growth potential, ranking third among Europe’s gas suppliers behind LNG and Norway, but still lagging behind the LNG surge and Norway in overall supply.
The primary challenge for Algerian gas to reach Spain and Italy lies in the limited cross-border connections between Southern and Northern Europe. Government leaders have voiced support for the MidCat project, with broader European support to finance portions of the development. France has shown hesitation, and a few governments remain cautious about advancing the project without clearer European consensus.