The Ukraine crisis has underscored natural gas as a strategic instrument in energy security. The looming question remains whether Russia will halt gas flows to European Union countries, a scenario that would press on the EU’s energy nerves. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled giant, supplies more than a third of the gas consumed by households and industry across Europe. A substantial portion of this supply travels via pipelines that cross Ukraine, making the region a critical chokepoint. The Kremlin has signaled it could cut flows through the Yamal pipeline in Poland, one of the routes delivering gas to the EU. Earlier, Ukraine had reduced or halted flows along another Ukrainian transit route, intensifying concerns about reliability. [Citation: energy policy analysis]
Experts say that, while closing this single channel would deal a heavy blow, it is not necessarily fatal to European energy reliability if other options are activated. Contingency measures exist, they note, but they urge preparation for the worst-case scenario if Vladimir Putin decides to switch off multiple safeguards. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated, the EU aims for a steady, adequate, and timely supply from a diversified mix of sources around the world. [Citation: European Commission statements]
The crisis has reinvigorated the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, with shipments arriving by large methane tankers. The United States has emerged as a principal LNG supplier during this period, sending a steady stream of LNG cargoes to European ports since late autumn. This reshaped the EU’s import balance, elevating North American gas as a central alternative to traditional pipeline gas. [Citation: LNG market reports]
Profit margins
While many of these tanker cargoes initially targeted Asian markets, they were redirected toward Europe to shorten routes and maximize profitability. Spain stands out as a key LNG regasification and storage hub in Europe, hosting seven of the continent’s 22 facilities. Nevertheless, distributing LNG stored on the Iberian Peninsula is not straightforward due to limited high-capacity pipelines and the logistical challenges of sea-based supply chains. The global pause in maritime trade after the pandemic has left logistics strained, increasing the complexity of getting LNG where it is most needed. [Citation: European energy infrastructure]
Brussels has also engaged with Qatar, a country that shares one of the world’s largest gas fields with Iran. Currently, LNG imports from Qatar account for a modest share of EU supply, around five percent. Australia has also supplied gas to Europe at what officials describe as reasonable prices. [Citation: market analysis]
Even if Russia could fully cut supplies, several European countries would face challenges as they move away from nuclear power and seek to minimize CO2 emissions by reducing coal use. Germany, Europe’s largest gas consumer, relies heavily on Russian gas, making discussions about a rapid detox from Russian supplies particularly sensitive. The geopolitical calculus around energy security remains intricate, involving interdependencies and strategic energy partnerships. [Citation: regional energy reports]
Favoring wind and diversification
Italy faces a similar vulnerability, even though Algeria supplies some gas. In a recent conversation, President Putin indicated to Italian leaders that gas supplies would not abruptly run dry, a position that underscores the importance of diversified sourcing and domestic energy resilience. In practice, months of cooling demand have eased pressure on European gas markets. From spring onward, overall gas consumption typically trends lower; in some periods, demand has fallen substantially compared with January levels. Still, authorities advise preparedness for the remainder of winter and the coming year, should conditions shift again. [Citation: regional energy outlook]
Experts caution that a total Russian supply shutdown remains unlikely, partly because it would deal a severe blow to the Russian economy and complicate strategic goals. Approximately 85% of Russia’s natural gas exports go to EU markets, a factor that keeps political tensions high. The Nord Stream 2 project, stretching beneath the Baltic Sea to connect with Germany, adds another layer of leverage for Moscow and is closely tied to regulatory decisions in Berlin. If approved for operation, Nord Stream 2 would complement the existing Nord Stream capacity, expanding potential sales and energy flows. [Citation: geopolitical energy analysis]