In Russia, experts anticipate that coronavirus cases may begin to rise in August this year and could ease by September, according to Ancha Baranova, a Doctor of Biological Sciences and a professor at the School of Systems Biology at George Mason University in Virginia, United States. Baranova shared these projections during a broadcast with Lenta.ru, outlining a pattern that echoes waves seen previously in other parts of the world.
Her analysis suggests that the trajectory Russia might experience mirrors what unfolded in South Africa, followed by the United States and much of Europe. The coming months could see a fresh cycle of infections as the virus adapts and populations respond with varying levels of immunity and public health measures. Baranova emphasizes that these shifts are not unique to one country but reflect a global epidemic rhythm set by evolving viral variants.
The expert associates the current global wave with a BA.5 subvariant, sometimes nicknamed the “ninja,” noting that the peak of this wave has already passed in many regions and is now in a phase of decline. While the immediate crest may be over in a number of places, the virus continues to circulate, and localized spikes can still occur as immunity wanes and new sublineages emerge. Baranova warns that ongoing surveillance remains essential to catching any resurgence early.
Baranova points out that the situation differs by country, with Russia and Japan showing distinct patterns. Japan’s geographic isolation relative to the continental mainland influences its exposure dynamics, while Russia’s cross-border movement and regional travel patterns shape its own epidemiological timeline. In this view, geography and mobility play significant roles in how quickly a country experiences waves and how long those waves last.
She adds that lower levels of travel between nations tend to delay epidemic surges. Reduced international movement can slow the introduction of new variants and give health systems more time to adapt. However, in communities where travel remains common, transmission can accelerate and peaks may occur sooner, requiring nimble public health responses to protect vulnerable populations.
According to Baranova, Russia has historically experienced a lag behind Europe in the timing of each major peak, typically by a couple of weeks. She notes that this lag has been increasing as the virus evolves and as countries adjust their mitigation strategies and vaccination coverage. This dynamic creates a window for learning from international experiences, drawing on how other regions prepared and responded to prior waves to inform local policy and health system readiness.
Earlier reports from health authorities indicated ongoing discussions about adjusting and possibly restoring anti-COVID measures as new data emerge. These considerations reflect a broader approach to balancing public health with social and economic needs, aiming to protect communities while avoiding unnecessary disruption. The situation remains under close observation, with health officials ready to adapt guidance in response to evolving evidence and regional trends.