According to the latest estimate, there is a 60% likelihood that temperatures across the peninsula will be above average, with a 70% probability forecast for two archipelagos. The warming trend noted in recent summers could continue, especially after several very hot months, potentially extending into September and keeping the season heated.
extreme temperatures
On July 10, a tweet from Andalusia AEMET reported that Seville could see temperatures reaching as high as 46.7ºC, a possible city record. The provisional ECMWF model suggested it might climb to 48.2ºC, which would become a new national benchmark. In Córdoba, La Rambla reported 47.6ºC, underscoring the regional heat stress. These figures were shared publicly as potential records for the period.
#AEMETHeat46.7 C for Monday, July 10. It would be a new city record, with ECMWF indicating 48.2C as a possible national peak, while La Rambla reported 47.6C in Córdoba. pic.twitter.com/rkxha7Viw8
— AEMET_Andalusian (@AEMET_Andalucia) 1 July 2023
increased precipitation
The forecast also signals rain and variable precipitation over the coming quarter, with about a 50% chance of rainfall exceeding normal levels across much of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Conversely, the other half of scenarios suggests either a normal quarter or drier conditions, both of which would still place precipitation and temperature values in the upper ranges when compared with the 1981–2010 reference period.
Forecast for July-August-September in Spain indicates a high probability that temperatures remain above normal nationwide (60–70%). There is about a 50% chance of above-average rainfall across large areas of the Peninsular and Balearic Islands, according to official forecasts.
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Note: Environmental authorities emphasize monitoring updates as conditions can change rapidly with shifting atmospheric patterns.