After months of steady progress, the hospitality sector is expected to rebound its occupancy levels in July and then accelerate as the year unfolds. A mid-month forecast aligns with a pattern seen before the pandemic, suggesting a return to near pre-Covid levels and a continued, though more measured, job growth that may ease compared to earlier months.
The head of the ministry overseeing Social Security, Immigration, and the interior noted that the hospitality industry had strong growth before the crisis, but the broader economy bore the brunt of the pandemic. He recalled that about 300,000 jobs were lost in a short span, yet occupancy in the region has risen significantly from the winter of 2020-2021. By July, it is projected that employment levels will reach those seen prior to the health crisis, with roughly 1.7 million workers in the workforce. He added that sectors driving the most employment include computing and scientific activities.
Slowdown
Overall, if the forecast holds, the region may see around 14,000 new workers by the end of the month, keeping the employed population above 20 million. Seasonal data, which accounts for monthly and yearly patterns, shows this figure trailing June, when the statistic rose by more than 115,000. It is also a bit below July of the previous year and even with the same month before the pandemic, when roughly 15,500 new workers joined.
Observing the shift, analysts note that summer hiring is changing. June hires are higher while July gains are smaller, suggesting the peak for onboarding could move toward June or even earlier, depending on economic conditions and hiring cycles.
Indefinite contracts
The government official remained hopeful about the broader trend. He said the first seven months of the year show growth in employment comparable to the pace seen between 2017 and 2019, even as the mix of contracts evolves toward longer commitments and stability.
According to his calculations, roughly 10 percent more indefinite contracts are being signed than would have occurred without the current labor reforms. This shift is most evident in sectors that previously relied on temporary work, including hospitality, food and beverage services, accommodation, and some construction activity. He also pointed out that when looking at all contracts registered with Social Security from the start of the year through July 18, the average contract length now falls between 19 and 23 days. This rise in indefinite contracts is not merely theoretical; it demonstrates a tangible move toward greater stability and durability in the labor market.