A leading meteorologist, Alexander Shuvalov, who heads the Meteo forecast center, warned that the unusually large snowpack this winter and the moisture stored within it could bring significant flood risks in the spring. In an interview with News, he highlighted that the depth of the snow cover in the northern half of the Russian Plain was 30-40% above long-term averages, signaling ample latent water ready to melt as temperatures rise.
Shuvalov explained that the moisture reserves trapped in the snow are crucial because they are amplified by compaction over the season. This stored water can release considerable runoff when warmth returns, potentially intensifying spring floods if conditions align.
According to the expert, severe floods could materialize this spring, particularly if higher temperatures coincide with heavy rainfall. His forecast pointed to possible breaches in the Volga basin, the upper Don, the Northern Dvina, and other rivers in northwestern Russia, where rapid melt and intense precipitation could push rivers over their banks.
If the spring arrives with a rapid warm-up, the flood danger increases substantially. Shuvalov described this as a “friendly” spring—one marked by swift temperature gains and substantial precipitation, factors that accelerate snowmelt and runoff.
Ahead of the season, regions across Russia have already been warned about ongoing weather irregularities. Positive temperature deviations are expected across Siberia and the Arctic coast, with temperatures around 10 degrees higher than normal. In contrast, deviations in the southern regions may be more moderate, with less pronounced warmth.
Earlier forecasts from Shuvalov suggested that Russia could see a rise in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, driven by shifting climate patterns. As winter gives way to spring, authorities and residents alike are urged to monitor evolving conditions and take preventive measures where flood risk is elevated, especially near major rivers and low-lying areas.