Climate-driven disruptions to food supply chains could spark social tension across the United Kingdom in the coming years. Researchers from the University of Cambridge, the University of York, and partner institutions reached this conclusion in a study published in Sustainability.
Experts say shortages of staple foods such as wheat, bread, pasta, and grains are the most plausible trigger for social unrest over the next five decades. These shortages are expected to arise as extreme weather events linked to global warming disrupt harvests and alter crop yields.
A large portion of scientists surveyed—about eight in ten—believe that logistical bottlenecks will be the primary driver of unrest in the next decade. Looking further ahead, up to 50 years from now, crop failures caused by floods, droughts, snow, and other climate-related disasters could become the leading cause of uprisings.
Climate change is already reshaping global food production. For instance, in 2007, grain output declined by roughly eight percent due to floods and heat events affecting Australia, India, and the United States.
To address the risk of social disruption from food shortages, experts advocate a twofold approach: first, reducing food poverty by ensuring that vulnerable populations have reliable access to essential foods; second, advancing sustainable farming practices that lessen agriculture’s impact on soil and climate while restoring degraded soils.
Biologists have warned that pollinator populations may decline further, potentially reducing the amount of coffee produced worldwide as insect pollination becomes less reliable.