After a long wait marked by refusals, tensions, and vetoes, Finland finally joined NATO on a Tuesday, following approval from Hungary and Turkey the previous week. The accession marks a milestone for the transatlantic alliance in a moment of broader European security recalibration.
Yet the moment is tempered by ongoing Turkish objections. Ankara maintains that Turkey’s concerns about the Nordic members remain unresolved, and this Turkish veto is expected to persist at least into the summer as negotiations with Sweden and Finland continue under a trilateral framework.
1. What did Finland do to be accepted?
Earlier, after a period of hesitation, Turkey agreed to allow Sweden and Finland to enter a reconciliation process at the NATO summit in Madrid last year. This step enabled their participation in the alliance, but Ankara attached demands. It required Helsinki and Stockholm to tighten anti-terror laws and take a firmer stance against members and sympathizers of what Turkey designates as terrorist organizations. The PKK is viewed as a terrorist group by both Turkey and the European Union, a designation that has fueled the dispute for decades.
Thousands of individuals tied to rebel movements live in Europe, with many in Sweden, which Turkey has long described as a sanctuary for dissidents. Stockholm and Helsinki pledged to strengthen their legislation and to show greater resolve. Turkey, however, has insisted that more concrete action be taken before the two Nordic countries are considered fully aligned with Ankara’s expectations.
2. Sweden is waiting
Turkey insists that Stockholm has not fulfilled all commitments to curb PKK sympathizer activities and demonstrations. Turkish authorities have repeatedly pointed to these actions as a barrier to Sweden’s entry. The Swedish government, in defense, argues that it guarantees the right to freedom of association and expression and asserts that it will pursue measures that align with its own constitutional framework rather than concessions to outside pressure.
The Turkish position reflects ongoing security concerns voiced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who signaled that the trilateral agreement signed in Madrid must be fully considered as talks continue. The issue remains a point of leverage in Ankara’s broader security policy while Sweden maintains that its democratic safeguards remain in place and subject to its legal system.
3. List of 124 names
At the heart of the dispute is a list of 124 individuals Turkey says are linked to the guerrilla movement it designates as terrorist. Ankara seeks their extradition to Turkey for trial, arguing that counterterrorism is a red line. Sweden has not complied with this request, citing the importance of fair trials and the Swedish judiciary’s independence. Prime ministers and officials emphasize that concrete steps are essential, and while Sweden has shown cooperation in other areas, it has not acceded to the extradition demand.
Swedish courts have repeatedly refused extradition based on concerns about due process and the risk of political persecution. The result is a stalemate that complicates efforts to secure Sweden’s NATO accession as part of a broader security realignment in Europe.
4. Quran burnings and elections
Another flashpoint involved a Danish far-right activist who publicly burned a Quran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. The act drew strong condemnation from Ankara and exposed deep fissures over freedom of expression and religious sensitivities. Turkish leaders linked the incident to a perceived leniency in Sweden toward provocative demonstrations, fueling broader distrust between the governments.
These tensions come as Erdogan faces elections that could reshape Turkey’s political trajectory. Polls suggest significant changes may occur, which adds uncertainty to Turkey’s stance on Sweden and its future role within NATO. The domestic political landscape therefore plays a crucial role in shaping decisions on the alliance’s enlargement in the near term.
5. Deadline: summit in Vilnius
Experts note that Turkey is unlikely to approve Sweden’s NATO accession before the May elections, given the domestic political dynamics and security considerations. What follows remains uncertain, as opposition leaders in Turkey have indicated a willingness to reassess the stance if the political winds shift. President Erdogan has not yet issued a final stance, keeping the question of Sweden’s entry unresolved for the moment.
Still, a calendar checkpoint exists: the NATO summit scheduled for July in Vilnius, Lithuania. Officials say Sweden’s presence at that gathering is a likely expectation, underscoring the alliance’s aim to extend unity across the transatlantic bloc while Europe contends with regional security challenges.