A study by the National Museum of Natural Sciences of Madrid (MNCN-CSIC) finds that the methods used to monitor the Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) in Spain often yield results that are too optimistic and do not accurately reflect the true population. The research highlights inadequacies in current conservation assessments and calls for more reliable approaches.
Overall, the researchers summarize that low-cost monitoring techniques frequently overstate both how many wolves live in the wild and how often they reproduce. This has important implications for how conservation decisions are made, suggesting the need for alternative, more robust methods.
The study, published in Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy, followed the Iberian wolf population in the Central System of the Iberian Peninsula for eight years, from 2010 to 2018. The findings show that only a small number of packs regularly breed and contribute offspring to neighboring regions, limiting long-term spread across the landscape.
These results diverge from findings in other regions with similar ecological conditions. They imply that the data used to build conservation models for the species may lead to overly optimistic conclusions about the status of wolf populations, meaning that the real numbers are likely lower than official statistics indicate.
Non-invasive monitoring approaches were employed, including tracking wolf signs along survey trails, analyzing wolf scats to define pack boundaries, and deploying camera traps to estimate pack size. Such methods aim to provide a clearer picture of population structure and dynamics.
Falling Species
A two-year population assessment cannot substitute for a long-term demographic study that requires a decade or more of follow-up. Current evaluations often carry a significant margin of error and cannot reliably determine whether the population is increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable, notes Victoria González, a researcher at MNCN.
A Iberian wolf photo from Cantabria illustrates the species in its EU protected status. The image underscores the ongoing tension between conservation science and practical management on the ground.
Throughout eight years of work, the research team observed that the Central System population shows signs of decline, even in an area that benefits from strong protective measures within the European Union. The authors emphasize that dispersing packs in the Central System would need at least four individuals to maintain breeding viability, yet the study finds the average pack size to be about 3.5 wolves. This small pack size is linked to reduced breeding rates and signals unfavorable conservation conditions in the region, with human-related mortality through poaching or accidental deaths contributing to the decline.
The authors argue for more intensive sampling to prevent management decisions from being based on erroneous estimates and potentially jeopardizing population viability.
Dispute in Court
Decisions on population management require precise status assessments and a clear baseline. The study’s co-author Abraham Prieto stresses the need for improved monitoring methods to yield reliable information for guiding population management and conservation strategies.
The researchers acknowledge that the Iberian wolf faces an unfavorable situation and note that the European Commission has urged measures to reverse this trend in the Peninsula. The political debate surrounding wolf protection has seen regional and national authorities clash, reflecting the broader challenge of balancing conservation with local livelihoods.
On the legal front, Northwest autonomous communities challenged the protection of the wolf before the National Supreme Court. The initial ruling denied a precautionary suspension of the ministerial decision protecting the species. Later, the Constitutional Court reviewed related provisions and addressed the status of the wolf in regional laws, underscoring the ongoing legal complexities of wildlife protection in Spain.
Natural Regulator of Other Species
The Iberian wolf remains the top predator in European ecosystems, acting as a natural regulator for herbivore populations such as deer, roe deer, and wild boar. In many regions these prey species are increasing rapidly, underscoring the wolf’s role in maintaining ecological balance.
A wolf pair was observed in the Wolf House environment, illustrating the ongoing presence and ecological relevance of the species. The Central System’s wolf population and its recolonization history trace back to the mid-2000s, following a period without the species in the area. The current population represents the southwestern fringe of the species’ range in Europe, an important indicator for regional conservation planning.
In addition to the National Museum of Natural Sciences, the Wolf Conservation Status Observatory and the CSIC Scientific Computing Service contributed to the investigation. A reference report is available as a scholarly citation rather than a direct external link: Field-work effort to evaluate biological parameters of interest for decision making, Italian Journal of Mammalogy, 146619, 0, 2.