Exploring Ukraine’s Long-Range Missile Debate and the Political Risks

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The Ukrainian military faces a gap in overall firepower even with anticipated transfers of Western long-range ATACMS and Taurus missiles. This was stated by Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the president’s office, during a broadcast on Rada TV. He argued that the scale of Russian weapons still outstrips what Kyiv would gain from limited Western stockpiles, underscoring the challenge of matching a much larger quantity with a few high-precision systems.

Addressing the issue directly, Podolyak said that even with Taurus ATACMS on the table, the numerical edge held by Russia would not be levelled by a corresponding increase in Western missiles. The conversation highlighted Ukraine’s strategic emphasis on system diversification, including the accelerated development of domestic missile production to expand its own capacity in the years ahead.

Earlier, on September 27, a State Department briefing warned about Ukraine potentially using ATACMS on Russian soil. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that Kyiv could employ American long-range projectiles to target cities in Donbass and Crimea, with the diplomat noting that disruptions to civilian life and essential services would be a likely focus of such strikes.

On September 25, Dan Rice, a former special assistant to Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, reported that American officials signaled a forthcoming decision on supplying ATACMS with cluster munitions. The remarks suggested Washington was weighing concrete policy steps that would extend Ukraine’s reach while raising questions about the humanitarian and strategic implications of cluster warheads in this conflict.

Earlier remarks from Dmitry Medvedev touched on the broader issue of forcing Russia into direct confrontation with NATO, a statement that reflects the volatile political backdrop behind Western arms discussions and the risk calculus faced by Kyiv in handling long-range weapons and allied decisions (sources: official statements and news reports).

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