Expectativa sobre observación internacional de elecciones en Venezuela

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Expectativa

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, urging a broader international presence in observing the July 28 elections. According to an official notice from the Planalto Palace, the Brazilian executive headquarters, the leaders discussed the Venezuelan electoral process during a phone call. Lula reiterated Brazil’s backing for the Barbados agreements, which were set last October to create conditions for a transparent race between Maduro’s government and its opposition. The statement notes that Lula highlighted the importance of a wide and credible footprint of international observers. Analysts in Caracas interpreted Lula’s call for greater breadth as a subtle, critical signal about the decision by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council to revoke the invitation extended to the European Union to send an election monitoring mission. The move has fed debate about the level of independent scrutiny ahead of the vote and its potential impact on regional legitimacy.

Days earlier, the National Electoral Council (CNE) acted as a conduit for comments from Jorge Rodríguez, Venezuela’s top parliamentary authority, who had publicly criticized the European stance on sanctions that affect the Miraflores Palace and the broader economic and social life of the country. Lula’s public stance suggested an expectation that existing sanctions on Venezuela could be eased to help the electoral process unfold in a climate of trust and mutual understanding. Yet the exclusion of European election observers appears to contradict Lula’s stated preference for broader international involvement.

This stance comes on the heels of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announcing it would not dispatch any mission to the neighboring country. The TSE did not provide reasons for this decision. The parallel move by Brazil to align with Colombia’s position drew attention in Caracas, where Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo explained that there was not enough time to assemble a delegation that could meet the moment. Venezuelan authorities took the timing as another sign that the two leading Maduro allies in South America would lack formal representation at the polls, potentially shaping perceptions of regional influence on the process.

Both Lula and former Colombian president Gustavo Petro have previously criticized the obstacles that barred opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from running after a primary victory. Petro has been associated with a proposal urging Maduro’s camp to commit to accepting the verdict of the August 28 vote, should it be unfavorable. This framing underscores a broader regional discourse about the legitimacy and inclusivity of the Venezuelan electoral scenario and the willingness of main opposition voices to participate under competitive conditions.

In Caracas, observers wonder whether the CNE might reverse its stance regarding EU observers. For now, the other two groups expected by the Democracy Platform in Caracas and across Venezuela to observe the process—the Carter Center and the United Nations Panel of Electoral Experts—have not publicly commented on the CNE invitation. The electoral body has also invited regional and international actors such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), the Inter-American Union of Electoral Bodies (UNIore), the African Union, and the Observatorio del Pensamiento Estratégico para la Integración Regional (OPEIR). This broad outreach signals a desire to broaden legitimacy through multi-lateral scrutiny, even as practical constraints and political calculations shape the outcome.

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Against this backdrop, Maduro’s campaign gains momentum through promises of economic improvements and expanded social benefits. Edmundo González Urrutia, an ex-diplomat representing the Democracy Platform, continues his public outreach, though with less intensity. Much attention remains on Machado, who travels the country and appeals to disenchanted voters to back the opposition. The evolving dynamics reflect a strategic competition that foreshadows a tightly watched electoral environment, with regional actors signaling who will be represented and how observers will shape the narrative around the July elections.

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