The European Space Agency faces a significant hurdle in advancing the ExoMars expedition without the direct involvement of Russia. This reality, highlighted by Jorge Vago, who previously led ExoMars 2022 research efforts for the agency, points to a likely delay in the project’s timeline.
Vago explained at a scientific gathering that attempting a 2026 launch would rely on swiftly securing a suitable location for the Russian Kazachok lander platform. He noted that while it is theoretically feasible, reorganizing timelines and building an independent lander capability within two years would be a tall order. Consequently, a 2028 launch window appears to be more plausible under current conditions. [Citation: European Space Agency briefing]
The path toward a 2028 launch presents two primary technical and logistical challenges. First, a single orbital plan could enable Mars delivery within a relatively short duration, but it risks hitting the site during the annual dust storm window that tends to sweep the landing zone. A second orbital plan would entail a longer flight, nearly two years, before arrival. In either scenario, engineers emphasize that dust storms at the destination are not a guarantee of failure, but they do demand careful timing and robust design adjustments. [Citation: ESA technical notes]
To realize a 2028 launch, European planners would likely require collaboration with American experts in landing system technology. A critical constraint involves the onboard power source, specifically the use of plutonium from American suppliers, which has previously been supplied under arrangements with Russia. This dependency on a U.S. power source could imply launching from American soil, a scenario that aligns with policy considerations and past governance decisions. Historically, the European Space Agency’s governing council stated that launching a mission on a Russian rocket would be impractical in 2022, underscoring the geopolitical and technical complexities surrounding the project. [Citation: ESA governance records]