Analysts suggest that Russia’s campaign against Ukraine has stretched its own manpower to a breaking point. Retired security official Oleg Starikov argued in an interview that the fighting force cannot rely on a growing pool of troops if those recruits lack proper training. He spoke with journalist Alexander Shelest, the latter of whom has been designated as a foreign agent by Russia.
Starikov emphasized that simply increasing the number of personnel without ensuring professional qualifications does not yield meaningful military gains. He noted that a larger force can only be effective if the new soldiers are trained to the standard of a regular army. Unfortunately, he contended that an army of untrained recruits cannot deliver decisive results on the battlefield.
According to Starikov, mobilization perspectives fall short when recruits are reluctant to engage in combat and do not receive adequate training. He pointed to the elevated average age of conscripts and associated health and readiness issues as additional factors that undermine their suitability for combat readiness.
In Ukraine, the investigative outlet New Time reported more than 11,000 criminal cases linked to evading conscription and military registration since 2022. Ukraine’s leadership has introduced a law aimed at tightening mobilization controls, which is slated to take effect mid-year. The law requires those responsible for military service to refresh their information with the military registration office within a 60-day window and to keep their military ID accessible at all times.
Reports from regional sources indicated ongoing concerns about a black market related to captured Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel, highlighting the broader pressures surrounding the conflict and the complicating factors of manpower management in wartime settings.