Energy markets across Europe continue to show volatility, with wholesale electricity prices fluctuating as traders react to supply forecasts and policy measures. This Saturday, the wholesale price is anticipated to edge lower, after Friday’s auction results indicated a price around 102 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), marking a near 10% dip from recent levels. The finding comes from the latest auction outcomes, which highlighted the week’s lowest MWh price as part of the ongoing price-setting process for the continent’s power grid.
At the same time, gas markets inside the Iberian Peninsula are behaving differently. The Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) price has remained below the year-end government cap of 40 euros per MWh, which supported a temporary relief in overall energy costs. The anticipated price for this Saturday is around 42 euros per MWh. In a scenario without the governmental mechanism, wholesale electricity could be closer to 104 euros per MWh, implying roughly a 2-euro increase per MWh due to gas-driven generation dynamics. These movements illustrate how policy tools can influence price baselines in real time.
Looking further, electricity costs have stayed above the 100-euro-per-MWh threshold in several sessions this week, even as record-low days have appeared earlier in the year. The three most favorable prices recorded so far this year sit around 73, 81, and 85 euros per MWh. Still, tomorrow’s wholesale price is much higher than the 176 euros per MWh observed twelve months ago in certain periods, driven by a mix of higher renewable output and softer natural gas prices in international markets as stockpiling for the upcoming winter continues.
The Saturday price is calculated by adding 101.5 euros per MWh to a 0.5-euro-per-MWh adjustment that benefits generators using the gas cap to produce electricity. This mechanism helps stabilize payments for facilities relying heavily on gas, even as market drivers shift.
The daily price curve shows the most expensive window of the day occurring between 19:00 and 20:00, with electricity priced around 133 euros per MWh at that hour. In contrast, the cheapest hour is projected to be between 13:00 and 14:00, when prices may dip to about 81 euros per MWh. Consumers and traders alike keep a close watch on these intra-day variations as they plan generation schedules, hedges, and consumption strategies.
Across Europe, national differences also emerge. In Italy, the upcoming day’s price is around 100.5 euros per MWh; in Germany, about 101 euros; in France, approximately 98.5 euros; and in the United Kingdom, roughly 86 pounds, equivalent to about 100 euros depending on the exchange rate. In the Iberian market, and in Portugal which shares the Iberian market framework, the price translates to levels similar to Spain due to the shared market structure and gas cap policies designed to mitigate volatility in electricity production.
Market participants point to a blend of renewables expansion and gas price movements as the principal forces shaping these price paths. As wind and solar output climbs, the need for flexible backup capacity can shift, even as natural gas remains a critical input for many plants. All of these factors interact with regional policies, capacity constraints, and international energy flows, underscoring the interconnected nature of European power pricing and the delicate balance markets must strike between affordability and reliability. [Source: European Energy Market Reports, 2025 Update]