Next month, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas price is projected to reach as high as 244.5 euros per megawatt hour, marking an increase of 17.27 percent from the previous settlement. The move comes as the Dutch market opened on a Monday session before the Russian state gas company Gazprom announced an indefinite halt to the Nord Stream pipeline for technical reasons. The development sent ripples through European energy pricing, with the market showing notable volatility in the lead-up to the announcement.
During the morning trading window, natural gas prices fluctuated within a range from a low near 242 euros per MWh to a high around 283 euros per MWh, before easing slightly at the close of the session. The price action underscores the sensitivity of European markets to supply disruptions and policy signals from Brussels.
The volatility arrives as the G7 nations reached an agreement to impose a cap on the purchase price of Russian crude, aiming to reduce Kremlin revenue while Moscow has warned it could respond by cutting oil and gas supplies. Traders and policymakers alike are watching how these measures will interact with European energy markets and broader energy security considerations.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, commented on the situation via social media, emphasizing that energy should not be used as a tool to threaten hydrocarbon supplies. The Commission has signaled preparedness to intervene if needed, stressing the importance of safeguarding consumers and industrial users against excessive price swings.
The Commission announced last week that it would intervene in the electricity market to temper volatility and ensure affordability. This intervention is part of a broader package that will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of EU energy ministers, with a focus on stabilizing prices and ensuring reliable energy access across member states. The measures under consideration include actions to limit unruly renewable energy prices, decouple natural gas pricing from electricity markets, and establish a reference price for Russian gas purchases within the European framework.
Despite the recent pullback, the natural gas market has regained an upward trajectory after a period of downward momentum the previous week. Current dynamics place the price roughly 21 percent below the all-time high seen two weeks prior, signaling recovering tension between supply constraints and price expectations as the EU progresses with its policy toolkit. Analysts note that the TTF remains a key benchmark for European gas during this period and a focal point for policy discussions surrounding energy independence and market stability.
Comparative context shows that a year earlier the price of a megawatt hour stood at about 52.4 euros, illustrating how far the market has swung in a relatively short period. Market participants are monitoring not only supply disruptions but also geopolitical signals, storage levels, LNG imports, and the pace of renewable deployment, all of which interact to shape the near-term trajectory of European gas prices.