Tomorrow’s electricity price is set to rise by about 20 percent, reaching 286 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), based on wholesale market results and the adjustment meant to compensate factories after the gas cap is applied. The OMIE electricity market and Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) data show that regulated tariff consumers would see prices 45 euros below the 331.4 euros per MWh that would have been charged without the gas cap on electricity generation.
Teresa Ribera, the Third Deputy Prime Minister, stated this week that consumers pay somewhere between 20 percent and 30 percent less for electricity than they could have, thanks to government measures, including the Iberian mechanism. This comes in a European context strained by the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Brussels preparing plans to curb energy use during peak hours, limit renewable and nuclear charges, and tax extraordinary profits earned by energy companies.
At the same time, officials are signaling a long-term reform of the energy market aimed at separating gas-based generation from renewable sources. European leadership indicated this comprehensive reform would arrive by the end of the year, according to Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who spoke on the matter in Brussels.
For tomorrow across major European economies, the highest price is expected in Italy, at 416 euro/MWh. France is projected to see 409 euros per MWh, and Germany just above 388 euros. The United Kingdom, on its own, is forecast to register around 240.7 pounds per MWh, roughly 277 euros at current exchange rates. In Portugal, where the gas is covered by the Iberian exception, the auction price aligns with Spain, with both sharing a connected market.
Auction and setup
If only the wholesale market results are considered, excluding the adjustment costs paid by cap beneficiaries to help compensate factories, electricity prices would rise by roughly 28 percent to about 175.4 euros per MWh. Depending on the time zone, the peak price of 250 euros per MWh is expected between 20:00 and 21:00, while the cheapest window is projected from 15:00 to 17:00 at around 138.7 euros per MWh. The gas-power plant adjustment must also be added to these figures, and the final amount can vary with the volume required and system price, affecting both households and businesses that benefit from the cap.
For tomorrow, the temporary average price for consumers is projected to be 110.6 euros per MWh, with the final price landing at 286 euros per MWh — about 63 percent higher than a year earlier. This trajectory reflects the balancing act between wholesale market dynamics and policy tools designed to shield consumers from energy volatility while signaling a path toward a more diversified and resilient energy system. [Source: OMIE, Mibgas, European Commission statements]”