Euro Area Inflation in February: Energy Gaps Close, Core Inflation Cools

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Euro area inflation cooled in February, with energy and food price trends easing

In February, the euro area’s annual inflation rate likely stood around 2.6 percent, two tenths below the 2.8 percent rate recorded in January. This preliminary estimate was published on Friday by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office.

During February, the year-on-year drop in energy prices moderated to 3.7 percent from a 6.1 percent decline seen in January. Fresh food prices rose by 2.2 percent, well under the 6.9 percent increase reported in January.

The annual increase in the cost of services slowed to 3.9 percent from 4.0 percent, while prices for non-energy industrial goods rose by 1.6 percent, four tenths lower than in January.

When energy effects are stripped out, the inflation rate in the euro area stood at 3.3 percent, down from 3.8 percent in January 2024. Excluding also food, alcohol, and tobacco, the core inflation rate eased to 3.1 percent, its lowest level since March 2022 (3.0 percent).

Among euro-area member countries, the highest February inflation rates were observed in Croatia (4.8 percent), Estonia (4.4 percent), and Austria (4.2 percent). Conversely, Latvia (0.7 percent), Italy (0.9 percent), and Lithuania (1.1 percent) reported the smallest increases in prices.

Spain’s inflation aligns with the broader trend at 2.9 percent

In Spain, the harmonized index of consumer prices showed an inflation rate of 2.9 percent in February, compared with 3.5 percent in January. This narrowed the spread between Spain and the euro-area average, reducing the apparent price disadvantage for the country.

Looking at larger euro-area economies, Germany posted a February inflation rate of 2.7 percent and France 3.1 percent, both lower than their January increases of 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent respectively.

Overall, the February data indicate a sustained moderation in the inflation trend across the euro area, with energy effects fading and core inflation easing, though country-by-country variation remains notable. Market watchers and policymakers will continue to monitor how energy prices, services costs, and the dynamics of non-energy industrial goods influence the trajectory of price growth in the coming months. This assessment reflects Eurostat updates and country specifics as of February data releases.

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