Uploads in the coming weeks
The 12‑month Euribor closed June at 4.007% on a monthly basis, marking the first breach of this level since 2008. A daily rate of 4.134% followed after the week culminated, pending confirmation by the Bank of Spain according to data compiled by Europe Press. This places the euro area’s reference rate at 4% after the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points mid‑month.
In practical terms, this represents an increase of roughly 0.15 percentage points from May. The current level stands as the highest since November 2008, when Euribor settled at 4.350%, and it is about 3.155 points higher than June 2022. For a borrower with a 150,000 euro variable mortgage over 30 years at a rate of 0.99% plus Euribor, the June rate review will lift monthly payments by approximately 261 euros. In absolute terms, monthly costs could rise from about 542 euros to just over 800 euros, translating into an annual delta of around 3,135 euros for families.
Outlook for the weeks ahead
Analysts anticipate Euribor continuing to trend higher in the near term, while some expect the pace to slow and then stabilize before potentially testing a historical high near 5.393% reached in July 2008. Market commentators note a cautious path ahead, with the path upward likely to be tempered by economic data and policy signals.
The XTB analyst Joaquín Robles notes that while the index may continue to rise in the coming weeks, the bullish trajectory is increasingly constrained. Despite the ECB’s stated intent to lift rates to curb inflation, the rapid tightening could dampen the outlook and influence subsequent decisions. Robles suggests Euribor might oscillate roughly between 4.20% and 4.30% in August, reflecting cautious momentum in the market.
Kelisto compiles forecasts from multiple institutions and sees a year‑end range roughly between 3.44% and 4%. Funcas and Asufin anticipate the upper end around 4%, while Bankinter projects about 3.57% and Caixabank around 3.44%. The compendium highlights a broad spectrum of views, underscoring the uncertainty as policy paths diverge across institutions.
Simone Colombelli, head of iAhorro Mortgages, describes the prospect of a sharp Euribor spike as plausible, with the first declines appearing within a few months. He notes that Euribor has shown stability in early 2023, rising modestly by a few tenths as global events unfolded, before the current macroeconomic pressures intensified after the summer of 2022. This context helps explain why rate movements have not followed a simple, predictable pattern.
Observers at iAhorro emphasize that the recent upticks do not mirror the extreme jump seen in late summer 2022, when month‑to‑month changes were more dramatic. A spokesperson for iAhorro stresses that the rate environment is moving toward stabilization, with the possibility of gradual normalization rather than abrupt shifts.
HelpMyCash echoes a similar view. In the coming months, its experts suggest the index could continue upward, given the ECB’s intention to raise rates again in July. Former ECB President Mario Draghi has remarked that the world may be entering a regime of higher interest rates due to persistent inflation and the pressures from public spending tied to defense and ecological transition initiatives. This frame has prompted discussions about the potential for sustained elevated levels rather than quick reversals.
These statements have resonated widely in financial commentary. If the global economy reflects these signals, the takeaway is clear: a period of higher rates could persist longer than many had expected. While history shows rates can spike swiftly and then fall, the current environment features political and economic factors that differ from past cycles. The sense is that a new normal may settle in between 3% and 4%, rather than returning to zero, according to several market snapshots.
In sum, the near term is likely to feature gradual increases with intermittent pauses as policymakers balance inflation with growth. For households and lenders alike, the trajectory of Euribor remains a central driver of mortgage costs, savings, and overall financial planning in Canada and the United States as global economic conditions evolve.