Euribor finished September 2022 at 2.233%, the highest point seen since early 2009. It remained around 2.622% as the month closed. Spain faced an economic downturn triggered by the 2008 financial crisis, and during that period the European Central Bank chose the opposite tactic: cutting rates to spur growth. Rates ended up at about 2%, roughly 0.75 percentage points above the then-current figure.
With the shift in this key index for variable-rate mortgages, September marked a historic peak. After 1.249% in August 2022, Euribor jumped by 0.984 percentage points in just 30 days. Simone Colombelli, director of mortgages at iAhorro, notes that the trajectory resembles a mirrored pattern from 2009 and 2008, though the path is not identical. Yet a spokesperson for the mortgage comparator stresses that an Euribor around 2% remains within a normal range and shouldn’t cause undue alarm.
Colombelli demonstrates caution about predictions, saying that outcomes are hard to forecast once events unfold. He suggests the market may enter a challenging period for real estate, but he does not expect a dramatic downturn in the near term. The main concern is a possibility of a 5% peak, similar to 2008, contingent on the Ukraine-Russia dynamic and broader macroeconomic trends. He adds that today’s households generally show greater solvency than a decade ago, which could dampen the impact on mortgage availability, though that assessment will hinge on evolving conditions.
About 400 euros more per month for variable mortgage
This rise affects both financial markets and individuals. Those with variable-rate mortgages undergoing annual reviews this month will notice higher costs. If the current loan is 300,000 euros — a typical average in Spain’s major cities — monthly payments would rise to about 389.43 euros, with the half-share at 194.72 euros when the bank advances 150,000 euros.
For borrowers with a 30-year variable mortgage of 150,000 euros, a spread of 0.99% plus Euribor could push monthly payments to around 448.65 euros during the annual review, up from 643.37 euros in the cited period. The yearly increase would then total roughly 2,336.64 euros. If the loan amount rose to 300,000 euros under the same terms, payments would climb from about 897.31 euros to 1,286.74 euros, implying an annual rise near 4,673.16 euros.
There are still good conditions in the market
Even in this environment, buying a home remains viable for many. The market still offers solid deals, provided prospective buyers perform thorough research and compare offers from multiple banks. iAhorro’s mortgage director notes that lenders continue to quote fixed rates under 2 percent in recent months, presenting excellent conditions given the current trend. These rates are not universal, but they are accessible through diligent shopping. He also cautions that fixed rates around 3% start to look less favorable.
When it comes to variable mortgages, the emphasis from iAhorro is nuance. Some products show margins under 0.30%, while others with spreads around 0.99% are still workable options. A mortgage with a spread at or above that level could replace a solid fixed or a mixed option. Mixed mortgages remain a prudent strategy: the initial fixed-rate segment can be under 2%, providing stability for the first 10–15 years, followed by a variable portion. This structure allows borrowers to decide later whether to convert or adjust the loan, according to Colombelli.