this physicist and mathematician, a CSIC inspector and author of a well-known energy critique blog, recently collaborated on a discussion with a fellow writer about the collapse of civilization. the conversation references leaked reports from a major climate body, which present a stark and cautious outlook on the years ahead.
Is our time up?
The outlook is sobering. A three-degree Celsius rise by the end of the century is a plausible scenario and would constitute a disaster. Since pre-industrial times, temperatures have risen by about 1.1 degrees, and in some parts of europe, including the peninsula, the increase has been more pronounced. Projections suggest extremely hot summers, well over typical values by mid-century. Leaked information indicates a need to shut down many coal and gas plants before 2030 to prevent catastrophic warming, while policy measures in the european union have allowed increases in coal use to address an ongoing energy crunch.
What situation are we in regarding the energy transition, and how does the lack of supply affect it?
There has been an assumption that a switch from fossil fuels to renewables can be done quickly and fully. that belief overlooks real constraints, including essential material availability. renewables play a role, but they cannot deliver seamless continuity of energy as things stand. a reduction in overall consumption is inevitable. fossil fuels have reached a peak in extraction, and a smooth, flawless substitution remains out of reach.
Everything?
oil, uranium, and coal production are already on a downward trajectory, and gas supplies are likely to follow. the pace of decline will be gradual, yet persistent, with competition for scarcer resources intensifying. history already shows periods of high prices and geopolitically strained relations. even before recent events, energy costs were signaling tighter markets. two questions persist: rising costs and the fundamental limits of resource availability.
Commercial fusion of hydrogen, still theoretical, is a panacea.
No. there are solid theoretical hurdles, unresolved questions, and reasons to doubt rapid breakthroughs. hoping for a quick miracle to fit our needs risks self-deception and delays real preparation.
Are our societies socially and politically prepared for a steady decline?
No. the decline is not optional; waiting for a miracle technology only postpones the inevitable. lower oil flows, shrinking coal and gas supplies will become evident. this winter could show sharp drops. there has been a gap between what people expect and what reality demands, with a lack of clear, honest discussion about the pace and scale of change.
And what will happen?
Expect a significant cultural shock as people recognize limits and confront ecological constraints. protests and social tension may rise as the environment redefines daily life and economic choices become more arduous.
And what about between the West and countries like China that need high growth rates to maintain stability?
Both blocs will seek viable paths as resources dwindle. europe may lose some influence as reserves tighten, while nations with greater access to resources may manage longer, prioritizing their populations’ needs. protectionism could rise in major economies, American and european alike, as competition over remaining resources intensifies.
Historically, it has sought to politically control resource-producing poor countries.
That dynamic could reemerge as a factor, with military considerations shaping access to scarce resources. europe may struggle to sustain influence, with its capacity focused more on strategic posture than on material advantage.
Will we get more immigration?
Short-term increases are likely. in the longer run, economic strain and changing opportunities abroad may shift movement patterns, with new pull factors coming from places that can offer stability or growth, even as tensions rise.
What should Europe do?
The first step is to understand the situation clearly. europe will increasingly rely on local production, as importing costs rise. the continent faces food security pressures and a global fertilizer crunch driven by energy costs. building climate-adapted, resilient farming and improved water management are essential, particularly in regions like spain where it is more feasible. other nations will face greater challenges. strengthening local food systems and water security is critical.
How to save production?
Preserving local trades and near-term employment by shortening distribution networks saves energy. reusing materials matters. mobility planning and urban design play a role as well.
A large population in Galicia is dependent on cars. Will this be sustainable in ten, fifteen years?
Ten years is too soon for a complete shift. the broad trend is towards concentrating populations in the short term while gradually moving toward alternative mobility models, public transit, and car rental options. it won’t be easy, but gradual change is possible.