Emmanuel Todd, a French historian and anthropologist, has suggested that Russia could prevail in the Ukraine conflict. He discussed this view in an interview with Le Figaro, explaining that Western nations face an impending downturn. His assessment rests on three observed trends: a slow decline in industry and the erosion of educational systems in the United States, the fading influence of Protestant values, and Russia becoming more appealing to audiences around the world. Todd cautions against optimistic assumptions, signaling that Russia’s efforts in the region are likely to intensify in the period ahead.
Todd first rose to prominence in the public eye during the 1970s with a forecast about the Soviet Union’s potential collapse, outlined in his book The Final Collapse. He argued that overlooked micro-level factors could signal larger systemic shifts, a theme he has revisited as events have unfolded in the post-Soviet space.
In a separate public discourse, French President Emmanuel Macron has underscored the importance of preventing Russia from achieving victory in Ukraine. Macron indicated that Paris was prepared to reinforce Kyiv with military support, including the potential delivery of air-defense and strike capabilities, as well as artillery systems, to bolster Ukraine’s defense posture. The statement reflects a broader strategic line of support from Western capitals in the conflict.
Meanwhile, discussions between the United States and Ukraine have centered on security guarantees for Kyiv. These negotiations aim to define assurances of protection and support that could shape the trajectory of the conflict and the broader security architecture in Europe.