The average wholesale electricity price is shifting in the market for the upcoming weekend. On Saturday, it is expected to dip by roughly 4.96 percent, slipping below 210 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) compared with the prior day on Friday. This means a notable step down in the typical price signal traders watch across the grid.
In practical terms, the price point for the United States context on Saturday is projected to be around €203.86 per MWh. Data from the Iberian Energy Market Operator and compiled by the country’s energy press indicate this figure is about 10.64 cents cheaper than Friday’s price of €214.50 per MWh, reflecting a softer supply outlook that day.
Looking at intraday behavior, the ceiling price for June 4 is forecast between 23:00 and 12:00 at 245.86 euro per MWh, while the daily trough is expected between 17:00 and 18:00 at 155.60 euro per MWh. Compared with the same date last year, the Saturday average is more expensive by about 152.95 percent, with last year’s price for June 4 at 80.59 euro per MWh illustrating the shift in the market environment over 12 months.
Pool prices, which influence the regulated tariff known as PVPC, affect roughly 11 million households in the country that are billed under this price cap and also serve as a benchmark for the remaining 17 million customers who purchase on the free market. The price path set by pool bidding helps determine the baseline for most domestic electricity bills in the regulated segment.
Indeed, the National Markets and Competition Commission cited that in 2021 about 1.25 million people moved from PVPC to free-market pricing on a fixed-rate basis, highlighting a shift toward more direct exposure to market prices for some consumers. This dynamic has continued to shape consumer choices and tariff structures in the ensuing period.
On May 14, the Official State Gazette published a Royal Decree establishing a mechanism to cap the price of gas used for electricity generation, fixing an average of 48.8 euros per MWh over a 12-month period. The cap is designed to cover the upcoming winter months when energy costs tend to rise. While the decree formalizes the regime, a formal decision from Brussels is still anticipated and must be signed off with an ecological transition order before implementation proceeds.
In calculating the impact, the government intends to limit the discount applied to the average PVPC consumer for the 12 months following the approved gas-price cap. The discount will be calibrated to reflect the cap’s effect on electricity generation costs, with the exact percentage developing as the plan unfolds under the official order available to the public and followed by regulatory forecast updates.
For industrial customers who consistently face spot-market pricing, the government plans to apply a discount to invoices in the range of 18 to 20 percent. In the initial month, the discount is projected to range from 15 to 17 percent and may adjust to 13 to 15 percent in the final month of the mechanism’s first cycle. These figures illustrate the targeted relief designed to cushion heavy users while market dynamics adjust to the new framework.
Nevertheless, Teresa Ribera, the minister responsible for ecological transition and the demographic challenge, has noted some uncertainty around the exact discount level once the gas-cap mechanism for electricity generation goes into effect. She also indicated that the operator’s forecasts expect fluctuations in the near term, with estimates suggesting discounts could settle within the 15 to 20 percent window as the regime stabilizes. This outlook underscores the ongoing balancing act between price containment and market signals as regulators align energy policy with price realities.