Electricity prices are set to rise by 13 percent by Tuesday, with the wholesale market price at 284 euros per megawatt hour MWh. This figure comes from the results of the auction in the power pool and includes an adjustment paid by gas cap beneficiaries to offset costs for facilities using this fuel source.
This marks the fifth consecutive price increase and the second highest level since September 22, when the price reached 298 euros per MWh.
Nevertheless, data from the Iberian Electricity Market Operator OMIE and the Iberian Gas Market Mibgas show that the wholesale price faced by consumers on a regulated tariff will be roughly 8 euros lower than the 292 euros per MWh that would apply without the gas cap.
The rise in electricity demand since the start of the week is accompanied by shifting energy market dynamics across major European economies, influenced in part by ongoing investigations into Baltic Sea gas pipeline links from Nord Stream 1 and 2.
Leaders from EU member states will discuss critical infrastructure security at an informal summit in Prague later this week, as part of the broader response to energy and security challenges.
In Italy, electricity is expected to average 351 euros per MWh tomorrow, with peaks around 600 euros between 20:00 and 21:00. In France the price is projected at 297 euros per MWh between 7:00 and 20:00, with a maximum near 600 euros, and in Germany the forecast is 246 euros per MWh.
Across Portugal, where the Iberian exception keeps the price aligned with Spain, the gas cap also influences the generation costs in a shared market dynamic with Spain.
Outside the European Union, the United Kingdom is expected to see prices near 170 pounds per MWh, which is approximately 195 euros at current exchange rates.
Auction and setup
When excluding the gas cap adjustment, the wholesale auction results imply a 5 percent drop to 191 euros per MWh. This is the baseline before any gas cap related adjustments are applied.
The peak price of the day is expected between 08:00 and 21:00, with prices around 280 euros per MWh. The lowest period is forecast from 15:00 to 16:00, when prices may dip to about 130 euros per MWh.
In total, the expected total for tomorrow will include the gas plant adjustments, which depend on the volume of gas required and the overall system price. Both households and businesses are affected by these supplementary charges, making the final cost for consumers sensitive to regulatory design and market demand.
For tomorrow the forecast average adjustment to consumers is 93 euros per MWh, resulting in an overall price of 284 euros per MWh, about 52 percent higher than the same day last year.