Even as natural gas prices hover high around 100 euros in international markets and the government has yet to set an upper limit, the electricity market shows signals of price stabilization. This Friday, the hourly price is projected to be seven euros per megawatt-hour during a two hour window from 15:00 to 17:00, driven by a surge in renewable generation—primarily wind power—and a temporary drop in gas-based combined-cycle production for that period. As a result, the wholesale market is expected to average 154.7 euros per megawatt-hour for the day, about 30 percent lower than Thursday’s level and the lowest price observed since the start of the Ukrainian conflict.
During the two hours on Friday, renewable generation is anticipated to reach up to 25,000 megawatt-hours, complemented by about 6,000 megawatt-hours from nuclear plants. Photovoltaic output remains robust this Thursday as well, typically ranging from 9,000 to 10,000 megawatts, while wind generation climbs to around 16,000 megawatt-hours, with estimates near 12,000 megawatt-hours for the day.
The price dynamics are explained by the growth of photovoltaic energy, which has boosted the number of affordable electricity hours in Spain. The country has added substantial wind capacity over recent years, and this year has seen solar capacity expand significantly. Around 5 a.m. was historically the best time for wholesale prices due to light demand and high wind generation, but the advent of increased solar capacity has shifted the price pattern, now peaking later in the day toward 17:00.
On Friday, Spain is not relying on combined-cycle plants that burn natural gas for generation. Portugal, by contrast, continues to operate them, but the period from 15:00 to 17:00 sees these gas-fired plants largely idle. This unexpected reduction in gas-fired output coincides with a price drop for that mid-afternoon interval, a rarity when prices dip below 100 euros per megawatt-hour. Consequently, the hour immediately before and after this 15:00 to 17:00 window is likely to feature comparatively lower prices, around 20 and 14 euros per megawatt-hour respectively, which aligns with typical seasonal patterns for these dates.
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