Electric prices this Saturday are projected to fall by 18.7 percent to 224.8 euro per megawatt hour MWh. The gas ceiling will be compensated to facilities using this material based on the auction results in the wholesale market, known as the pool, and the adjustment is paid by the beneficiaries.
Data from electricity market operator OMIE and the Iberian Gas Market Mibgas shows that the wholesale price paid by consumers on a regulated rate will be almost 82 euros below 306.58 euros. If the gas price cap had not been reached, the MWh would have been higher.
In other words, without the gas cap at 306.58 euros per MWh the price would be 43.7 percent higher. That figure stands in contrast to the historical peak reached on March 8, when prices rose to 544.98 euros per MWh in the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Across Europe, electricity markets remain elevated, with Italy seeing an average price around 436.27 euros per MWh this Saturday and peaks near 500 euros in the evening hours. France anticipates an average near 397.53 euros per MWh, while Germany contends with the impact of a disrupted Russian gas supply via Nord Stream 1, reaching about 380.77 euros per MWh.
Meanwhile the United Kingdom is projected to see a modest moderation, averaging roughly 265.17 pounds per MWh, which converts to about 316 euros at current exchange rates. Portugal also follows the Iberian pricing pattern due to the Iberian exception, with an average similar to Spain as their markets are integrated.
Auction results and system adjustments
If one considers only the wholesale market results, excluding the gas ceiling compensation paid to power plants, electricity would be cheaper by about 8.2 percent, landing at 129.98 euros per MWh.
Prices vary by time zone. Across the day, the highest price is expected between midnight and 1:00, around 163.78 euros per MWh, while the minimum is anticipated between 10:00 and 11:00 at approximately 114.3 euros per MWh.
It is important to note that these figures do not include the transmission and plant adjustment costs that are shifted to households and beneficiary companies. The cost of these adjustments depends on the volume and the price required by the system and is reflected in the final receipts faced by consumers.
For this Saturday, the average adjustment applied to these consumers is expected to be 94.82 euros per MWh, resulting in a final price of 224.8 euros per MWh. This amount is more than double the level seen a year earlier by about 136 percent. The broader market dynamics continue to be influenced by the interaction of supply constraints, international gas flows, and regulatory measures in the Iberian Peninsula and beyond. (Source: OMIE, Mibgas).