Electric price move: wholesale price expected to fall again this Friday
The wholesale market or pool for electricity is anticipated to drop by about 18%, reaching as high as 375.84 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) after the auction results. This figure will also reflect the adjustment paid to power plants that run on gas, designed to balance the plants that rely on this fuel.
Data from the electricity market operator OMIE and Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) indicate that the regulated rate paid by consumers will be roughly 48 euros lower than the 423.19 euros per MWh that would have been charged without the gas cap on electricity generation.
The ongoing decline follows remarks by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who signaled the possibility of an urgent response to volatility in the electricity market during an appearance on Tuesday afternoon.
The Commission’s response comes after August was marked by record high prices across Europe, with Spain reporting an average of 308.63 euros per MWh—the most expensive month for electricity in the country in recent times. This volatility continues to test energy stability across the continent, even though a broad decline is forecast for many nations on the near horizon.
The highest price among major markets is expected in Italy at 524.34 euros per MWh, followed by France at 516.69 euros per MWh. Germany is projected to average 422.25 euros per MWh, while the United Kingdom is around 327.87 pounds per MWh (approximately 379 euros at current exchange rates). In Portugal, where the gas cap is applied due to the Iberian exception, the auction price aligns with Spain’s market.
Auction dynamics and implementation details
If only wholesale market results are considered—excluding the regulatory adjustments applied to compensate power plants for gas use—the electricity price would drop by about 21% to 152.14 euros per MWh. Price peaks and troughs are tied to daily time blocks, with the highest levels typically recorded between 21:00 and 22:00 at around 205.27 euros per MWh, and the lowest between 16:00 and 17:00 at roughly 119.77 euros per MWh.
These amounts must be considered alongside the cost of adjusting for gas-powered plants, which fluctuates with volume and system price. This adjustment affects households and beneficiary companies alike, adding a variable layer to the final consumer price.
For tomorrow, the temporary average adjustment for consumers is expected to be about 223.7 euros per MWh, roughly 70 euros higher than the auction’s average. The final consumer price is projected to be 375.84 euros per MWh, more than double the level seen a year earlier. (Sources: OMIE, Mibgas)