Optimism remains measured as the chief executive of the Institut d’Estudis Financers, Joseph Soler, suggests that the essential components of the economy could align to stage a mild recovery. He notes that the economic contraction is not as severe as some forecasts anticipated, and he is scheduled to speak this Friday about the evolving landscape. In his interview with this newspaper, Soler cautions that the forthcoming slowdown will bring tighter credit conditions that will affect small and medium-sized enterprises most, given their continued reliance on traditional bank financing.
Although he describes himself as pessimistic by nature, Soler admits he did not foresee the current wave of challenges. He identifies several factors that could cushion the impact of the conflict in Ukraine and the climb in inflation. Central banks can modulate interest rates with care to avoid stalling growth, he argues, allowing policymakers to balance inflation with sustained activity.
Fiscal policies, including government assistance to families and key sectors, also shape the outlook. A healthy tax intake and inflation have the side effect of reducing the real value of debt, which can support financial stability for households and businesses alike.
As the executive director of the European Financial Planning Association in Spain and a member of the European Banking and Financial Services Education Association, Soler emphasizes the significance of Europe’s Next Generation funds, noting their positive albeit modest multiplier effect. He highlights the potential of these funds to influence regional development and corporate investment.
He comments that the Euribor, the primary reference for mortgage rates, is at a level that can be managed. He expects the current peak to hold for more than a year, after which a favorable shift could occur. An upside is that savers may finally see better returns on funds that have underperformed for years.
Soler warns that the slowdown or possible crisis is likely to reassert itself as conditions shift. The credit squeeze observed today is tied to heavy reliance on bank financing. In many markets, alternative funding channels—such as venture capital, crowdfunding, or listings on stock markets—remain a small share of SME funding, and the gap has yet to close in several regions.
Data point to a division: in the United States, banks and alternative financing contribute roughly half of SME funding, while in Europe banks account for about 90% of total financing. Another signal is that households and firms in Spain retain a notably cautious stance toward saving, with substantial deposits that yield little return.
Throughout his career, Soler has held roles including CEO of Databolsa, commercial director of the Barcelona Stock Exchange, and auditor for the European Commission, bringing a breadth of experience to discussions on market dynamics and policy implications.