Two years after the social upheaval that reshaped history, Cuba’s economy remains a potential flashpoint. The island’s main cities are under close scrutiny, and the country is enduring one of its hottest years on record. Yet the heat is not just meteorological. A memory of a dramatic past and a future full of uncertainties hang over the present.
September 11 left a lasting impact, not only because public space had not previously seen such protests against political leadership. In the days after, unofficial reports claim hundreds faced arrest and hundreds more awaited trial, with a portion already sentenced. Some on trial reportedly left the island, while others stayed to face proceedings.
Granma, the voice of the ruling party, reflected on events that shook the nation and accused the United States of undermining public trust through sanctions and a culture war, noting how social networks in a country with widespread mobile phone use amplify that influence.
Disinformation campaigns and violent street riots are described as orchestrated activities by foreign intelligence, aimed at destabilizing the country. The state media frames the struggle as a battle for national unity, stressing the importance of support for the party and the Revolution as a shield against threats.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel, reelected in recent elections, warned about renewed pressure from Washington as Cuba faced severe days during the late pandemic. Beyond official statements, everyday life shows a stubborn inflation, ongoing energy and transport problems, and a currency depreciation that continues to challenge the economy. The informal peso market has seen the dollar surge again, while tourism, once a lifeline after the Soviet era, has contracted. Visitor numbers in 2022 failed to meet targets, and expectations for this year point to a slower pace than in 2019.
So far this year, emigration has surged, with tens of thousands seeking a better future abroad. The impulse to leave has reshaped the social fabric, and the government has accelerated its alignment with other global partners, including Russia, amid the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Silvio Rodríguez, a cherished figure in Cuban culture, has spoken of a difficult phase for the revolutionary project. In a public reflection, he suggested that socialism in its current form has yet to surpass capitalism in productive potential. He acknowledged moments when many identify with the Revolution while recognizing that the reality differs from the ideal. His view notes that changes are less about external shocks and more about mindset and collective welfare guiding political choices. The idea is to move beyond fear and to place communal well‑being ahead of individual security, challenging assumptions about urban life and governance.
The 2021 crisis also included a punitive dimension. Human rights observers note that some detainees and prisoners of conscience faced proceedings without proper legal defense, highlighting concerns under international law about due process. Later reports drew attention to the conditions faced by vulnerable groups, including the treatment of trans women in male facilities and other harsh realities in the penal system.
The horizon remains unsettled. The social imagination continues to carry the possibility of new disturbances. Records from the Cuban Conflict Observatory show numerous small incidents since September, with one notable event in May 2023 in Guantanamo Province illustrating the fragile balance between stability and unrest.
In this climate, analysts emphasize the persistence of economic and political pressures that shape daily life. The interplay of sanctions, internal reforms, and external partnerships continues to redefine Cuba’s trajectory, influencing labor markets, migration, and the country’s capacity to address basic needs for its people. The national journey remains defined by resilience, ongoing debate, and a sense that the future will require new approaches to governance, economy, and social cohesion.